Oil Just Hit $100 a Barrel. Here's the 1 Energy Stock Built to Win Whether Prices Stay High or Crash.
Key Points
Chevron has one of the lowest breakeven levels in the oil patch.
It also has a fortress balance sheet.
Its low-cost operations enable it to win either way.
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Oil prices have been extremely volatile this year. Brent oil, the global benchmark price, has gone from around $60 a barrel in January to a peak near $120 a barrel a few days ago. While crude has come off its highs over the past few days as tensions in the Middle East have eased, it could easily soar again if they flare back up, or continue sliding if there's a peace deal.
While most oil stocks will thrive if oil prices stay high, not all of them can still win if there's a crash. One that can win in either environment is Chevron (NYSE: CVX).
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Built to win at lower crude prices
Chevron has spent the past several years upgrading its global portfolio. It has sold off lower-margin assets while investing heavily to acquire and develop low-cost resources. As a result, Chevron can generate enough cash to fund its capital spending plans and dividend at an average oil price below $50 a barrel through 2030, one of the lowest breakeven levels in the industry. Chevron also has a fortress balance sheet, with its leverage ratio currently well below its target range. The oil giant has the financial capacity to grow its production and dividend at sub-$50 oil over the next five years while repurchasing shares at the low end of its $10 billion to $20 billion target range.
The oil company's ultra-low-cost operations position it to thrive if oil prices stay high. Chevron expects to generate $12.5 billion of incremental free cash flow this year at $70 oil, fueled by recently completed expansion projects, its acquisition of Hess, and cost-saving initiatives. It can grow its free cash flow at a more than 10% compound annual rate through 2030 at $70 oil. Meanwhile, it can produce an even bigger cash flow gusher if oil prices are above that level.
Chevron built its business to win at lower oil prices, which enables it to deliver blowout results when crude is higher.
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Matt DiLallo has positions in Chevron. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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