2 High-Flying Space Stocks Are Expected to Plunge Up to 56% in 2026, According to Select Wall Street Analysts

Although artificial intelligence has been capturing the attention and capital of investors for years, space may mark the next game-changing opportunity. According to an April 2024 report from McKinsey, the space economy is expected to nearly triple in value from $630 billion in 2023 to an estimated $1.8 trillion by 2035 -- and investors are taking notice.

Two of Wall Street's most popular stocks among retail investors are space stocks. Shares of AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) and Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) have soared by 3,070% and 256%, respectively, over the trailing two years.

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But where there's a big-dollar opportunity, there are bound to be skeptics. Based on the low-water price targets of select Wall Street analysts, shares of these retail-favorite space stocks can plummet by up to 56% in 2026.

AST SpaceMobile: Implied downside of 56%

While some analysts see satellite-based cellular broadband services provider AST SpaceMobile surging beyond $130 per share, analyst Andres Coello of Scotiabank recently lowered his firm's price target on the company to just $41.20. If accurate, Coello's price target would imply a 56% decline from where shares ended on March 19.

On the one hand, AST brings a competitive edge to the table. The company's BlueBird satellites can work with existing smartphone technology, which means no need for specialized phones. Furthermore, AST has partnered with over 50 mobile network operators globally, meaning it'll work with, not compete against, them.

Nevertheless, cellular broadband is a highly competitive industry. For instance, SpaceX-owned Starlink announced a $17 billion acquisition of spectrum from EchoStar in September.

AST SpaceMobile's premium valuation also depends on the company launching new satellites in a timely and cost-effective manner. Inflationary pressures have previously pushed up cost estimates for its satellites, and launch dates have already been pushed back. In many ways, AST SpaceMobile appears priced for perfection, which is the basis of Coello's low-water price target on the stock.

Image source: Getty Images.

Intuitive Machines: Implied downside of 50%

The other highly popular space stock whose shares may come crashing back to Earth is lunar space infrastructure and technology company Intuitive Machines. Bank of America Securities analyst Ronald Epstein expects shares to fall to $9.50, representing a 50% decline.

Investor interest in the manufacturer of the Nova-C lunar lander really began to manifest in September 2024. On Sept. 17, 2024, it was awarded a Near Space Network contract for communication and navigation services for NASA missions. It's a base five-year deal with an option for an additional five years, potentially worth up to $4.82 billion.

Despite government contract revenue padding Intuitive Machines' pocketbooks, there are reasons to be skeptical.

For one, it's still an early stage company that lost money and burned through some of its cash on hand last year. Its full-year net loss totaled $83.3 million, with $14.3 million in net cash used in operating activities. Early stage companies often issue stock and dilute their shareholders to raise cash, which is what Intuitive Machines has done.

The other concern is that its government contract-focused operating model lacks pricing power. It's competing against brand-name defense companies with deep pockets, and the federal government isn't known for overbidding on space contracts. Like AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines may be priced without room for error.

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Sean Williams has positions in Bank of America. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines. The Motley Fool recommends Bank Of Nova Scotia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.