Could This Aviation Stock Could Turn $1,000 Into $100,000?​

In the last 15 years, only a handful of stocks have grown a hundredfold. One might name, for instance, Tesla, which has grown about 2,290% since January 2011, or Nvidia , whose growth in that time frame is more than double at 4,810%. Companies like these belong to a rare breed that become so dominant their daily stock price movements can shift an entire index.

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is not one of these companies. And that's good news, for now. It's currently at the threshold of what could be a breakout performance, so long as the regulatory winds blow in its favor. As the frontrunner of the nascent electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry, Joby is edging into a $5 trillion market opportunity: air mobility.

The next decade could be an exciting time for Joby's early investors, though a lot will have to go right for this aviation stock to grow a hundredfold.

Image source: Joby Aviation.

The next 100-bagger? Joby has runway, but no lift off yet

Let's pretend, briefly, that your daily commute involves an hour of traffic both ways. Maybe it already does, or your commute is longer than hour, or it feels like an hour (especially after work). In any case, you can imagine the frustration of sitting in stop-and-go traffic for a stretch of road that likely only takes five minutes to drive at a less-congested hour.

Now imagine that same scenario, but instead of sitting in traffic, you're flying above it. Not in an airplane, nor a helicopter, but something like a cross between them. It has six tilting rotors, so it can lift up and down but fly forward. It's quiet, seats four passengers, and saves you about 50 minutes from that hour-long commute.

That's a piece of the vision that Joby Aviation is trying to sell. Its flagship product is a kind of air taxi, an Uber of the sky, so to speak, that could fly you to the office or airport or around a congested city.

It's a big idea, and research from Morgan Stanley thinks so, too. Back in 2021, it estimated that the urban air mobility market would be worth $5 trillion by 2050.

Now, set aside this vision. Because here's the reality: Joby is essentially pre-revenue, and it lacks the Federal Aviation Administration-type certification to fly passengers commercially. It also lacks the infrastructure (think: aircraft and vertiports) to make its air taxi vision a dream come true, something that will take a lot of capex to put into place.

Which leaves us here. For Joby to grow a hundredfold (turning $1,000 into $100,000), it would need to not only secure commercial certification but quite literally become the Uber of the skies. It would need to expand to hundreds of cities and manufacture thousands of aircraft. Demand for air taxi rides would also need to be so high that it becomes common transportation, not just a novelty for the wealthy.

Even with that dominance, it's hard to imagine this $10 stock growing to $1,000, which would punch its ticket to the trillion-dollar club. Is that possible? Sure. Will it happen? I doubt it. Joby seems like a decent long-term play for modest growth, but I would temper expectations for a four-digit gain.

Steven Porrello has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia, Tesla, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.