Is IonQ Stock a Buy as Revenue Growth Explodes Higher?

IonQ's (NYSE: IONQ) share price skyrocketed after the company reported a huge surge in revenue for the fourth quarter. Despite the price jump, the stock is still trading down on the year, and it's off more than 50% from its 52-week high.

Let's look at the quantum computing company's earnings report and prospects to see whether or not it's too late to buy IonQ.

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Revenue surges 429% and comes in well ahead of guidance

IonQ has become one of the early leaders in quantum computing with its trapped-ion technology. One of the biggest obstacles facing quantum computing is that the technology is error-prone, but with the help of its acquisition of Oxford Ionics, IonQ has achieved 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity (accuracy). That level of accuracy has given the company an early edge over most competitors, and it's starting to show up in its results.

In the fourth quarter, IonQ's revenue skyrocketed 429% to $61.9 million from $11.7 million a year ago. That was 55% above the midpoint of its guidance range.

While revenue soared, the business remains unprofitable on an adjusted basis. The company did record a GAAP profit in the quarter, but that was due to a large non-operating gain related to the change in fair value of its warrants. This is a non-cash adjustment that comes from the company going public via a reverse merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in which it issued warrants. When IonQ's stock price goes down, so does its warrant liability, resulting in a gain. Its adjusted EPS was a loss of $0.20 compared to a loss of $0.15 a year earlier.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came in at a loss of $67.4 million, compared to a loss of $31.3 million in the prior-year period.

IonQ also continues to burn cash, with negative operating cash flow of $283.2 million for the year, and negative free cash flow of $299.6 million. It ended the year with about $3.3 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet and no debt.

Looking ahead, the company projected that its 2026 revenue would fall between $225 million and $245 million, not including any impact from its pending acquisition of SkyWater Technology. It's expecting an adjusted EBITDA loss of between $330 million and $310 million. For Q1, it forecast revenue to be between $48 million and $51 million.

Is IonQ stock a buy?

IonQ is one of the most intriguing names in quantum computing, given its technology's strong accuracy rates and its goal to control the entire quantum ecosystem. Meanwhile, its pending acquisition of quantum foundry SkyWater could give it a further edge, as it gives it even more control and ensures its ability for manufacturing capacity to be able to scale.

That said, as seen by its losses and negative cash flow, an investment in IonQ is still very speculative. As such, investors should look to just hold small positions in the stock given its long-term upside potential.

Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ and SkyWater Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.