Nvidia Posts Largest Drop of the Year, $260 Billion in Market Value Evaporates, Is Merely “Exceeding Expectations” Actually “Falling Short”?

TradingKey - NVIDIA (NVDA) Reported fourth-quarter results that once again beat market expectations, but the share price dropped 5.5% in overnight trading, erasing approximately $260 billion in market value in a single day as "buy the news, sell the fact" trading took hold.

This also reflects a shift in market pricing logic—the focus has moved from earnings growth itself to the sustainability of the AI capital expenditure cycle and the revaluation of risk premiums.

The market has already formed a high degree of consensus regarding NVIDIA's earnings performance. In other words, the "earnings beat" has been partially priced into the valuation, and the marginal boost to the stock price from new information has significantly declined.

Investor Michael Burry, famous for his successful bet against the subprime mortgage crisis, noted that NVIDIA's "purchase obligations" have risen to approximately $95 billion. This means the company's long-term commitments to upstream wafers and the supply chain have increased significantly. If end demand falls short of expectations, high purchase obligations could compress future profit flexibility and increase pressure on inventory and cash flow management.

This pullback does not shake NVIDIA's dominant position in the AI chip sector, but it reveals a narrowing of valuation elasticity.