Prediction: The Quantum Computing Hype Could Cool Off in 2026 -- Here's Why

In late 2024, Alphabet announced an experimental quantum computing chip capable of performing calculations exponentially faster than traditional supercomputers. That helped ignite market-wide hype for quantum computing stocks throughout 2025.

A handful of early-stage quantum computing stocks, such as IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS), and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), all surged to massive gains throughout the first few quarters of 2025. Although these stocks cooled off beginning in the fall, all three stocks managed full-year gains as high as 211%.

Quantum computers could someday help unlock potential in artificial intelligence (AI), drug discovery, and cybersecurity, perhaps creating new industries. But despite their remarkable potential, I predict that the hype on quantum computing stocks will continue to fade throughout 2026. Here is why.

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Technological barriers to any meaningful short-term impact

The scientific magic of quantum computers lies in their use of quantum mechanics. A traditional computer processes information called bits, which are either 1 or 0 at any given time. Quantum computers process qubits, which can be in multiple states simultaneously, enabling them to perform complex computations far faster.

Quantum computers require highly controlled environments to function, and they still produce too many errors to depend on their computations. Beyond that, quantum is an entirely new computing frontier. That means that people still must develop software for any applications they would use quantum computers for.

Aside from current technological limitations, any cutting-edge technology is almost always costly. It will take a long time yet for quantum computing to mature and become cost-effective enough to be practical. That's why current quantum computers have minimal commercial use and primarily conduct research.

Quantum stock valuations remain stretched

With limited near-term opportunities to commercialize quantum computing, investors are increasingly likely to scrutinize the valuations of these stocks. IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Rigetti Computing all generate very little revenue compared to their current market capitalizations.

There is very little fundamental support for these stock valuations. Even as revenue grows over the coming years, it's difficult to say when these companies might turn a profit or what their profit margins would look like. There is a laundry list of unknowns, which, if anything, is likely to weigh on valuations.

IONQ Market Cap data by YCharts

If that weren't bad enough, these stocks will likely face steep competition the moment that quantum computing hits its stride. Several big tech companies, including International Business Machines, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft, are actively researching and developing quantum computing.

Lastly, market sentiment toward speculative stocks and assets hasn't been as strong as it was last summer. As investors continue to reconsider some of these speculative stocks, quantum computing seems likely to continue cooling off.

Justin Pope has positions in Alphabet and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, International Business Machines, IonQ, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.