Where Will Rigetti Computing Be in 3 Years?

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) is a popular pure-play stock pick in the investment world. Its prominence has risen throughout the past year or so, but the stock is down around 70% off of its all-time high. The market is either turning on this once-popular investment, or it's a generational buying opportunity due to its presence in the quantum computing world.

Where will Rigetti stock be three years from now? Let's find out.

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Rigetti Computing is competing against some stiff competition

Quantum computing isn't a niche technology sector. There are dozens of companies vying to become the go-to option in this field, and Rigetti is one of them.

There are essentially two types of companies competing in this sector. The first are pure plays like Rigetti Computing that are starting from scratch and have to rely on contracts and outside investors to fund operations. The second are legacy tech companies that have massive cash flows available to fund quantum computing research.

In a normal setting, all the money would be on the legacy tech players, as their resources should allow them to develop quantum computing technology rapidly. However, these tech companies are also heavily spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, so their resources are thinner than they would normally be. This could open the door to a pure play like Rigetti Computing, but only if it can develop a viable computing solution.

And it's not doing well at that.

Understanding quantum computing isn't easy. However, many of the quantum computing companies offer a benchmark test that allows investors to compare one offering to another. It's known as the two-qubit gate fidelity test, and it essentially sees how accurate a quantum calculation is after passing through two processing operations. The higher the number, the better the result.

Recently, Rigetti announced that its 108-qubit system is taking longer to achieve 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity than anticipated. While its less-powerful nine-qubit system delivers 99.7% two-qubit gate fidelity, it needs to deliver better results in its larger systems to be relevant.

It's also significantly behind another pure-play competitor, IonQ (NYSE: IONQ). IonQ achieved 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity for its system back in October. IonQ is building a 256-qubit system on this technology that will be released in 2026, so it's clear that it is miles ahead of Rigetti in the accuracy and qubit quantity race.

If Rigetti continues to see delays, I won't be surprised to see the stock down even further in three years, or potentially not trading at all, either from bankruptcy or through an acquisition. This would be bad news for investors, but it's the reality if it doesn't pick up the pace.

Rigetti needs to show me some better results before warranting an investment, and I think the market selling off Rigetti's stock isn't an irrational reaction; it's the right move until Rigetti can start to show some improved results.

Keithen Drury has positions in IonQ. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.