Which Cryptocurrency Has More Upside Through 2030: Bitcoin vs. Cardano

Neither Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) nor Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) have performed well during the past 12 months. The king cryptocurrency is down 35%, whereas Cardano is faring even worse, with a decline of 66% (as of Feb. 5).

But the good news is that 2026 might bring better returns for these assets. So which has more upside from now through 2030?

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Bitcoin is already eyeing 2030

Today Bitcoin has a market cap of roughly $1.3 trillion. There's also a maximum of 21 million coins that can ever be in circulation, and the coin's new issuance steps down consistently over time via scheduled halvings -- cuttting in half the rewards for coin miners -- roughly every four years.

Those two facts do a lot of the work to determine the asset's prospects of generating returns. Although it's true that its current huge size makes it unlikely to deliver many multiple returns to those who invest now, its inherent and increasing scarcity does support long-run compounding quite strongly. Still, scarcity doesn't immunize investors from declines, and it's obvious that the coin is not in favor currently.

Nonetheless, one key sign of Bitcoin's staying power is who owns it now. Bitcoin exchange-trade funds (ETFs) collectively hold nearly 1.5 million bitcoins; asset managers and corporate treasurers are unlikely to become net sellers if the market briefly slumps, and many are intent on accumulating more over the long run.

But that institutionalization also means Bitcoin remains sensitive to broad financial conditions. Liquidity and market sentiment still drive big moves, which can be a double-edged sword.

Cardano's upside isn't playing out

Compared to Bitcoin, Cardano only has a market cap about $9 billion, and it's also a different type of cryptocurrency because it doesn't aspire only to be a store of value. And that smaller value base is why Cardano can plausibly deliver bigger returns than Bitcoin if both attract the same absolute dollars of new demand.

But what Cardano needs is more usage to drive demand for the coin. It runs a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus system, meaning coin holders can help to secure the network by staking tokens in exchange for earning interest-like returns. Still, that doesn't solve the chicken-and-egg problem of encouraging people to buy it in the first place.

Similarly, if it becomes a preferred settlement layer for transactions, for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) or for decentralized finance (DeFi), it might gain very quickly -- but that hasn't happened so far, and there isn't much reason to suspect that it's about to. It only has $136 million in total value locked (TVL) on its chain, which is pretty minimal. And that's the main problem with Cardano; there simply isn't any group of investors, users, or app developers that is willing to engage with its ecosystem in a way that would encourage scaling it up in response to demand.

Therefore, if you want the better bet for getting some upside through 2030, Bitcoin is the better choice. There are already plenty of people interested in buying and holding it, unlike with Cardano.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.