US: Earnings resilience and AI investment support outlook – HSBC

HSBC’s Willem Sels and Lucia Ku maintain a positive six‑month view on US equities and USD investment grade credit. They highlight the United States’ status as an energy exporter, robust projected earnings growth, and strong technology and AI‑related investment. Fed easing, M&A activity and capital markets recovery are seen as additional supports, although diversification across regions and sectors is still emphasised.

AI, earnings and policy backdrop underpin US

"In addition to being an oil exporter, US resilience is supported by robust earnings growth, with a projected 15% increase in 2026. Both technology and AI-related investment continue to drive revenue growth and productivity gains across sectors, complemented by ongoing infrastructure buildout (e.g. data centres) and structural opportunities that bolster broader economic activity. Industrials, Communications and Materials are key beneficiaries."

"Stagflation risks remain low despite the Middle East conflict. Resilient economic growth, solid corporate earnings and continued innovation continue to drive revenue growth and productivity gains across sectors."

"We continue to favour US equities and USD investment grade credit given the market’s earnings resilience, leadership in innovation, and relative macro stability, while the risk of stagflation remains low in our view. Nevertheless, we emphasise the importance of diversification across regions, sectors and currencies to reduce concentration risk."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)