Where Will Nu Holdings Stock Be in 10 Years?

Source Motley_fool

Key Points

  • Nu has expanded rapidly since its market debut in 2021.

  • It faces near-term macro headwinds, but it looks undervalued relative to its growth.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Nu Holdings ›

Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU), one of Latin America's fastest-growing fintech companies, went public at $9 per share on Dec. 9, 2021. Its stock has risen more than 60% since then, outpacing the S&P 500's 40% gain, but it's been a bumpy ride. While Nu's core business grew rapidly, the geopolitical and macro headwinds in its top markets consistently compressed its valuations. Let's see if it can overcome those challenges and soar even higher over the next ten years.

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Nu's strengths and weaknesses

Nu owns NuBank, the largest digital-only bank in Latin America. Most of its customers are in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. By streamlining its online services and offering a fee-free credit card, NuBank expanded more rapidly than its brick-and-mortar competitors. It also locked in its customers with more loans, e-commerce services, and crypto trading tools.

From 2021 to 2025, Nu's number of year-end customers surged from 54 million to 131 million, its activity rate (active customers divided by total customers) rose from 76% to 83%, and its average revenue per customer (ARPAC) more than tripled from $4.50 to $15. Even as NuBank grew like a weed, its average cost per active customer remained steady.

From 2021 to 2025, its revenue grew at a 75% CAGR. It also turned profitable in 2023, and its EPS nearly doubled in 2024 and increased 45% in 2025.

Those growth rates are jaw-dropping, but Nu's gross and net interest margins declined over the past year as it expanded more aggressively into Mexico and Colombia to curb its dependence on its core Brazilian market. Both of those smaller markets required higher funding costs and credit loss allowances than Brazil did, while the expansion of its lower-margin secured lending and payroll-backed loan segments exacerbated that pressure.

Those near-term challenges, along with currency devaluation issues and armed conflicts across Latin America, drove many investors away from Nu and its regional peers. But at $15, Nu's stock looks undervalued at just 17 times this year's earnings.

Where will Nu's stock be in 10 years?

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Nu's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 28% and 36%, respectively. If it matches those expectations, grows its EPS at a 20% CAGR over the following eight years, and trades at a more generous 25 times earnings by the final year, its stock could rise more than tenfold to about $158 per share within the next decade.

That rosy outlook assumes the macro and geopolitical headwinds in Latin America will eventually dissipate. But even if those challenges persist, Nu should continue to gain customers and remain a top play on Latin America's expanding fintech market.

Should you buy stock in Nu Holdings right now?

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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nu Holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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