EUR/HUF: Volatility risks stay elevated – ING

ING economists Peter Virovacz and Zoltán Homolya expect the Hungarian Forint to remain volatile as geopolitical tensions and the April 2026 elections weigh on sentiment. They see EUR/HUF gravitating around the 385–390 area, with fundamentals pulling the pair back toward 385 after any result-driven swings. Monetary policy is seen sidelined near term.

Forint trapped between energy and politics

"With the central bank being as cautious as possible, and even actively using its FX reserves to redirect import-related FX market flows, if necessary, the EUR/HUF 385-390 range will act as a gravity line."

"We are now in a 'pick your poison' situation with regards to the forint."

"We think that monetary policy will be sidelined in the coming weeks, with either the energy situation or politics deciding the fate of the currency."

"On the political front, we predict that investors will react asymmetrically, as long positions related to political bets have largely been liquidated."

"In either case (a result-driven rally or a sell-off), however, the move will be short-lived, with the fundamentals dragging EUR/HUF back to around 385 as the dust settles on the election results."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)