Malaysia: Growth to moderate as BNM holds – UOB

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that Malaysia’s final 4Q25 GDP grew 6.3% year‑on‑year, the fastest since 4Q22, lifting full‑year 2025 growth to 5.2%, above the official 4.0%–4.8% range. Growth was driven by domestic demand, exports, tourism and AI‑related tech. UOB expects real GDP to slow to 4.5% in 2026 and Bank Negara Malaysia to keep the OPR at 2.75%.

Robust 2025 gives way to slower 2026

"Malaysia’s final 4Q25 GDP surprised on the upside, growing 6.3% y/y (advance est: +5.7%; 3Q25: revised upwardly to +5.4% from +5.2%), the fastest quarterly expansion since 4Q22."

"For the full year of 2025, Malaysia’s economy expanded by 5.2%, slightly above the 5.1% growth recorded in 2024 and well above the official forecast range of 4.0%–4.8% and the 4.9% advance estimate."

"We expect real GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2026 (MOF est: 4.0%-4.5%) amid persistent external uncertainties and base effects."

"We anticipate Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75% through 2026."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)