Should You Buy Bitcoin While It's Under $100,000? Here's What Prediction Markets Think
Key Points
Prediction market traders think Bitcoin is just as likely to hit a price of $40,000 as a price of $100,000.
Based on how previous crypto market cycles have played out, Bitcoin is likely to fall even further this year.
Bitcoin investors will need to be patient for a long-term recovery in price.
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There are two ways to think about Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) right now. If you're a glass half-full type of investor, then Bitcoin has likely bottomed out, and is ready to continue its long-time upward trajectory. However, if you're a glass half-empty type of investor, then Bitcoin is likely to feel even more pain this year, given that prior market downturns have seen Bitcoin lose as much as 74% of its value.
There's no better way to see these opposing viewpoints play out than in online prediction markets, where traders put money to work betting on the future price of Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin event contracts on Polymarket
On Polymarket, it's possible to buy event contracts based on what price you think Bitcoin will hit in 2026. Right now, prediction market traders say that Bitcoin has almost exactly the same chance of hitting $40,000 this year as it does $100,000. Bitcoin has a 35% chance of regaining the $100,000 price level this year, and a 38% chance of dropping all the way to $40,000.
Image source: Getty Images.
If you think that Bitcoin is going to regain its all-time high of $126,000 this year, you might want to double-check your assumptions. On Polymarket, traders are only giving Bitcoin an 18% chance of hitting $120,000 this year, and a 14% chance of hitting $130,000. So, let's split the difference and say Bitcoin has a 16% chance of hitting $125,000 in 2026.
The most likely scenario, quite frankly, is that Bitcoin falls further to $55,000. On Polymarket, traders think there is a 76% chance of that happening. The second most likely scenario is that Bitcoin marches back to the $80,000 price level. One way to interpret this data is that Bitcoin is expected to remain in a trading range between $55,000 and $80,000 for much of 2026.
What are the prediction markets telling investors?
If you're buying Bitcoin with the expectation of it soaring in value this year, you might want to pump the brakes. There's likely more downside ahead. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Bitcoin falls from its current level of $65,000 to $55,000 or lower.
Keep in mind that during the previous Bitcoin bear market cycle in 2021, Bitcoin collapsed in value. From a (then) all-time high of $69,000, Bitcoin fell all the way to $16,000 before eventually recovering. This resulted in a long, painful crypto winter and plenty of hand-wringing over the future of crypto.
Bitcoin's long-term outlook
The good news is that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains intact for patient buy-and-hold investors. It might sound strange, but Bitcoin is doing what it always does. There have now been four boom-and-bust cycles, dating back to 2012. In each cycle, Bitcoin races to a new all-time high, before absolutely cratering in value. Then the cycle begins anew.
So maybe there is a silver lining in Bitcoin's absolutely horrid performance this year. You no longer need to pay a sky-high price of $126,000. Bitcoin is officially on sale, and the time to buy is now.
Should you buy stock in Bitcoin right now?
Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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