Dow Jones futures slip after Wall Street posts gains, US Supreme Court tariff case eyed
- Dow Jones futures inch lower as risk aversion increases on decreasing Fed rate cut bets.
- The Wall Street gained following stronger private US payroll data released on Wednesday.
- The US Supreme Court may rule against the Trump administration’s tariff measures under IEEPA.
Dow Jones futures fall 0.11% to trade below 47,400 during European hours ahead of the opening of the United States (US) regular session on Thursday. Moreover, the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.14% and 0.24%, with trading around 6,820 and 25,700, respectively.
US index futures struggle as traders adopt caution amid weakening odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 62% chance of a cut in December, down from 68% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Additionally, the ongoing government shutdown is now the longest in US history; it continues to delay the release of key public data and increases risk aversion.
The Wall Street posted moderate gains on Wednesday’s regular US session as traders returned to buy the dip. The Dow Jones advanced 0.48%, the S&P 500 rose 0.37% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.65%. US stocks received support as market sentiment improved following stronger-than-expected private payroll data. ADP Employment Change climbed by 42,000 in October, compared to the 29,000 decrease (revised from -32,000) seen in September.
AI-related stocks rebounded after earlier pressure from valuation concerns. Semiconductor giant Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings, closing up about 2.5%, while Micron Technology and Broadcom advanced 8.9% and 2%, respectively.
Market sentiment also improved amid expectations that the US Supreme Court may rule against the Trump administration’s aggressive trade actions under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Several justices voiced doubts over the President’s authority to impose sweeping tariffs without Congressional approval.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
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