Historic Moment For Bitcoin? BTC Edges Closer To Shattering Longstanding 4-Year Cycle Theory

Bitcoin’s price may have rebounded briefly due to recent news following US President Donald Trump’s plans of a 90-day pause on all country tariffs except China. However, volatility continues to linger in the market, with BTC’s price stability being questioned as it struggles to break the $83,000 level. Given the heightened volatility hampering BTC, data shows that it is on the verge of making a move that could change its longstanding trend.

A Critical Moment For Bitcoin Brewing

The ongoing bearish pressure has turned out to be a threat to Bitcoin’s well-known 4-year cycle course. As the broader crypto sector moves further towards a bear market phase, Alphractal notes that BTC’s waning performance hints at a potential of making a historical anomaly.

In the X (formerly Twitter) post, the advanced on-chain data platform shared insights on Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle trend using the Bitcoin Price Radar measure, which displays its performance during the period. This key metric is a radar-style chart that calculates Bitcoin Halving regions, price tops, and bottoms using symbols, with one full rotation representing 4 years. 

Looking at the chart, the tops of previous cycles are indicated by the green symbols, and these symbols appear extremely close to one another since they each happened about 4 years apart.

After delving into the metric, Alphractal stated that Bitcoin is very close to violating the fundamental rule, where the flagship asset has never revisited the same price from 4 years ago. Such a development is likely to usher in a new era of unpredictability and uncertainty for BTC in the long term.

This longstanding fundamental rule will be broken for the first time if the recent bearish pressure drives BTC’s price to $63,000 or below this level. When this occurs, it can be a signal of heightened volatility, especially for long-term holders who intend to keep their holdings for many years.

Even though this has not happened yet, the platform is still not ruling out the possibility that the future top may align with its older “siblings,” which might occur in October 2025. With BTC’s price battling to recover lost ground, watching key metrics like this will help determine its next possible trajectory in the short term.

BTC’s Falling Wedge Pattern Still Holding

Despite the persistent volatility that has caused a notable pullback for Bitcoin, it has not completely lost its potential to witness an upward move. Market expert and investor Captain Faibik highlighted that the flagship asset continues to trade within a Falling Wedge pattern as fluctuations intensify.

Coupled with this is a bullish divergence that has formed in the daily time frame chart, indicating growing momentum. Should BTC recover from its current position, it may retest the major trendline resistance at the $83,500 mark in the short term. However, in a larger view, Captain Faibik anticipates a significant rally toward its current all-time high of $109,000.