Fidelity's $100,000 Bitcoin Signal Just Flashed

Bitcoin continues to hold above $80,000, the level Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer says would confirm a bottom and open a path to $100,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $84,647 on Sunday, about 18% short of that target. Futures speculators, meanwhile, are adding to record bullish bets.

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin Breaks the $80,000 Level Fidelity Flagged

Timmer is director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, one of the largest US asset managers. He set out the trigger in a post, citing a double bottom chart pattern, where price hits a similar floor twice, then climbs.

Bitcoin Double Bottom. Source: Fidelity

“Bitcoin is looking particularly interesting here as it challenges key resistance at $80k. If it breaks it will confirm a double bottom targeting $100k,” Timmer wrote.

Timmer’s weekly chart marks this year’s lows at $60,033 in February and $57,742 in late June.

His charts use data through September 20. Since then, Bitcoin has crossed $80,000 and touched about $87,500 before easing.

Why Fidelity Sees $300,000 Bitcoin by 2029

Timmer also pointed to Bitcoin’s power law, a model that fits its long-run price to a curve over time. On that model, he says holding $60,000 signals a new bull market aimed at $300,000 in 2029.

Bitcoin’s Power Law. Source: Fidelity

“Bitcoin’s power law math continues to suggest that a new cyclical bull market is underway after holding $60k, targeting $300k in 2029,” the Fidelity executive added.

That marks a turn. In December, Timmer raised bear market concerns, warning of a possible drop to between $65,000 and $75,000. Bitcoin later fell further.

Can the Bitcoin Rally Hold?

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, tracks the Commitments of Traders (COT) report. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes it weekly to show who holds futures positions.

McClellan says speculators such as hedge funds recently hit a record net long position. That means their bets on rising prices far outweigh bets on falling ones.

Non-commercial traders’ net position in Bitcoin futures against price since 2023, Source: Tom McClellan/X

“What is unusual is that with the pop earlier this week, these traders actually were adding more longs instead of harvesting gains. That is a strong statement that they expect more gains to come,” McClellan wrote.

Other signals are mixed. In August, BeInCrypto flagged three warning signs, including weaker exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows and spot demand.

This month, BeInCrypto also reported CryptoQuant’s bull market line at $81,700, Bitcoin’s one-year average close. The current Bitcoin price sits about $3,000 above it.

That leaves a narrow cushion. A slip back under $80,000 would undo the break Timmer’s $100,000 target depends on.