Trump Let Him Out of Prison, Now He's Banned for Life From Trading

Kalshi has issued former congressman George Santos its first-ever lifetime trading ban. The platform fined him more than $70,000 for manipulating a market tied to his own State of the Union attendance.

The ban lands less than a year after Trump commuted Santos’s seven-year prison sentence. He walked free after serving less than three months.

A Congressman Undone by His Own Story

Santos won New York’s third congressional district in 2022. Reporters then found he had fabricated his education and employment history.

He also lied about parts of his family background. Federal prosecutors later charged him with misusing campaign funds and stealing identities.

The House expelled him in December 2023. He became only the sixth member ever removed from Congress.

He pleaded guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft. A judge sentenced him to 87 months in prison. Trump commuted that sentence in October, wiping out the remaining term along with fines and probation.

“George Santos was somewhat of a ‘rogue,’ but there are many rogues throughout our Country that aren’t forced to serve seven years in prison.”

Trump wrote that in a Truth Social post announcing the commutation. However, Trump had never endorsed Santos’s 2022 campaign for Congress. In that same post, he praised Santos’s party loyalty as reason enough for clemency.

Lifetime Trading Ban Follows Insider Trading Allegations

Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market. It flagged unusual activity in Santos’s account on a contract betting on his own State of the Union attendance.

Between February 2 and 25, Santos placed large bets on that contract.

He also made public statements that misstated his plans. Those statements moved the contract’s price.

Santos ultimately profited nearly $17,840. He wagered against his own attendance, then skipped the event.

Kalshi gave him a permanent ban, in contrast to the temporary suspensions given four other recent cases. He had refused to cooperate with its investigation.

Meanwhile, Santos had already agreed in July to pay $35,000. That settled a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) probe into the same trades, detailed in Santos’s earlier CFTC fine.

Santos thanked Kalshi for the ban on social media. He also mocked the platform’s own longevity.

Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform.Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for. 💋

— George Santos (@Georgesantos) August 31, 2026

The case follows Kalshi’s earlier staffer penalty for similar Trump speech bets. That signals prediction markets are tightening their oversight.