Google escalates quantum risk as 6.7M BTC estimated as vulnerable

BTC quantum risk is still hypothetical, yet the cryptographic protection of wallets can give a preview of which addresses are the most vulnerable. Legacy wallets and older holdings may be exposed to cryptographic cracking through quantum computers. 

A total of 6.7M BTC sit in wallets vulnerable to quantum attacks. A large number of wallets from the early mining era use P2PK wallets, exposing early mining rewards to quantum risk. 

Within the top 100,000 addresses, many are vulnerable due to exposed public keys, as well as reusing public keys. The vulnerable wallets may belong to individual investors, as well as bigger entities with significant holdings. The vulnerable wallets include those of early miners, including Satoshi Nakamoto. 

BTC protected by P2PK wallets faces the biggest risk

Quantum risk may be mitigated by moving wallets to new standards and keeping public keys only for personal use. As Cryptopolitan reported earlier, quantum risk may arrive sooner than expected. 

Google also proposed a new model where crypto addresses could be exploited with much lower than expected quantum computing power. The estimate of Google for the total vulnerable BTC is lower. 

“We highlight the example of Bitcoin’s Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) locking scripts, which secure over 1.7 million BTC. The total amount of dormant quantum vulnerable bitcoin may reach 2.3 million BTC when all script types are considered,” explained the recent paper on quantum risk.

The quantum risk cut-off date, envisioned 15 years into the future, may arrive sooner. Some suggest Google may be capable of hacking a BTC key already, but has decided to give crypto a leeway to adapt to quantum computing.

Google also discovered that quantum cracking of a BTC code may actually take around 20 times fewer resources than previously suggested. 

BTC remains unevenly distributed

Besides direct quantum attacks, which are still hypothetical, BTC as a long-term reserve faces another vulnerability. 

As a high-priced asset, around 44% of all available BTC is held in the top 100 wallets. Those entities are closely watched for any coin movements as a signal for BTC price action and sentiment. 

As a result, exposed public keys may increase quantum risk, unless the holders move or disguise their BTC. However, large-scale owners will not likely use mixers or other tools. Some large-scale holders resort to Coinbase Custody, which does not expose their cold wallets. 

Are BTC treasuries exposed to quantum risk? 

Currently, only Strategy’s treasury is closely watched. On-chain research has exposed at least 13,000 BTC from Strategy’s reserves with exposed public keys. 

In the past year, some of the biggest whales have started moving their coins. Some of the old wallets have sold, while others seem to have split the assets. 

In the past year, shark wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC increased by 11.82%, while the biggest wallets remained unchanged. Retail wallets with 1-100 BTC have declined the most, while retail speculation is happening in wallets with under 1 BTC. 

For short-term traders, quantum risk is negligible compared to the exposure of large-scale reserves, hot wallets, and treasuries, which have not moved in months or years.

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