Bitcoin Hit a 5-Month Losing Streak — On-Chain Data Screams Capitulation

Bitcoin (BTC) has posted five consecutive monthly declines since October 2025. In March, the cryptocurrency is currently up around 0.56% amid macro headwinds.

A red close would tie the 2018–2019 stretch as the longest consecutive monthly losing streak in Bitcoin’s recorded history.

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The sell-off has pushed BTC roughly 46.8% below its all-time high near $126,000. With the asset trading around $67,800, an on-chain indicator is now flashing a capitulation signal typically associated with market bottoms.

Analyst Crypto Dan flagged that the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is below the 1.0 threshold. This means investors holding BTC for over 155 days are now selling at a loss on average.

“Because long-term holders are the least sensitive to short-term volatility, a phase in which they begin to realize losses can be interpreted as a broader market-wide capitulation. By this point, short-term holders have likely already exited the market or suffered significant losses,” the post read.

When this metric falls below 1, it typically signals a phase in which even conviction-driven participants exit positions while absorbing losses.

The analyst said that historically, such readings have preceded the exhaustion of sell-side pressure. This, in turn, results in market bottoms or zones close to long-term lows.

“While it may be premature to identify the current market as the absolute bottom, a phase in which losses become widespread would likely represent the final stage of fear and the beginning of opportunity,” Dan added.

Previously, analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed to the BTC/Gold ratio chart, which shows a roughly 70% drawdown from its peak. 

“In any bear market, bottoms are found after a 70-85% correction.  On top of that, we’re already in a bear market for 13-14 months, and historically, that’s when $BTC has bottomed out vs. Gold. This time won’t be different,” he said.

However, on-chain analyst Willy Woo presented a more cautious outlook. Woo, citing “old school onchain models,” noted that BTC could bottom between $46,000 and $54,000.

This aligns with other analysts’ views who project a potential bottom forming below $40,000, suggesting the current sell-off may still have further to go.

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