Bitcoin Tests $74,000 as War-Driven Oil Frenzy Fuels $320 Billion Crypto Rally

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a 40-day high of $74,451, adding $1,800 in just 30 minutes as the US-Iran conflict continues to reshape risk asset flows.

The move liquidated $113 million in short positions within an hour. The broader crypto market has added over $320 billion since the conflict began in late February.

War, Oil, and a Shifting Risk Appetite Drive Bitcoin Towards $74,000 Again

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $73,849 after an intra-day high of $74,451 on Monday, reclaiming levels last seen in early February.

The rally defied conventional expectations. Risk assets like BTC have outperformed traditional safe havens such as gold and silver during an active military conflict, a dynamic that has surprised many traders.

Meanwhile, retail investors flooded into oil ETFs (exchange-traded funds). Trailing one-month purchases in pure-play oil ETFs reached a record $211 million on Thursday, according to analysts at the Kobeissi Letter. That figure surpassed the May 2020 peak of $200 million and tripled the 2022 high of $70 million.

Historically, oil shocks that did not lead to prolonged recessions preceded strong equity recoveries. The S&P 500 averaged a 24% gain in the 12 months following a two-day oil spike above 20%, according to Kobeissi data.

The only exception was 2008.

Not Everyone Is Bullish

Despite BTC’s sharp bounce, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen cautioned that the bear market is not over.

“The bear market isn’t over yet, because liquidity hasn’t fully recovered. The $60K–$70K range is a good zone for dollar-cost averaging (DCA). But not necessarily the time to go ALL IN,” wrote Chen.

Chen’s target for full deployment sits at $50,000, though she acknowledged missing that entry remains a real possibility.

Adding to the tension, Coinglass flagged rising BTC open interest alongside price increases, which mirrors patterns that preceded previous volatility spikes.

Whether this fuel ignites another leg up or a sharp reversal remains the central question for traders watching the $74,000 level.