Wintermute says BTC miners already have the infrastructure needed for AI pivot

Some miners in the Bitcoin market are turning to artificial intelligence after struggling to stay profitable in the current market cycle, according to algorithmic trading firm Wintermute.

The difficulties in this Bitcoin cycle are playing out quite differently compared with the market pressures in 2018 and 2022, making returns so much more challenging for many miners, the market maker wrote.

Previous epochs’ shrinking margins were predominantly a reflection of the cyclical interplay of rewards, fees, and the cost of doing business, Wintermute said, but now the squeeze feels more structural. It noted, “We’re at the structural ceiling, not a cyclical trough, adding that with the hash rate and difficulty climbing so high, the protocol’s automatic adjustments are no longer enough to cushion the economic strain.

Wintermute says BTC miners already have the infrastructure needed to pivot into AI

Wintermute, in its blog post, noted that jumping into AI is a logical next step for BTC miners, as they already have the energy and computing resources that the rapidly growing AI industry is trying to secure. However, it warned that, even if the potential exists, transitioning into AI is no walk in the park—and remains incredibly expensive.

The 2024 BTC halving contributed partially to the decline in Bitcoin mining and the pivot to AI. In April 2024, the block reward was cut in half, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, immediately reducing miners’ income by 50%, while their operational costs—primarily electricity, cooling, and maintenance—remained unchanged or increased. Currently, the Bitcoin network produces about 450 BTC per day.

At a hypothetical $100,000 per coin, miners worldwide compete for a daily pool of $45 million, excluding transaction fees. Simply put, simply mining isn’t as profitable as it once was, especially for those with older rigs or high energy bills. Each halving reduces coin rewards and makes miners more dependent on transaction fees.

According to Wintermute, in this market cycle, Bitcoin hasn’t delivered the 2x price boost miners rely on to offset revenue lost to halvings, with gross margins now comparable to bear-market levels. Moreover, rising energy bills continue to chip away at miners’ earnings. 

Nonetheless, Wintermute says it sees opportunities in derivatives structures, covered calls, and cash-secured puts. Traditionally, miners have centered on staking and DeFi for returns.

It asserted, “We believe active balance sheet management is the most underutilized lever available to miners and one that deserves far greater strategic attention. The miners who treat their BTC holdings as a working asset rather than a passive reserve will carry a structural edge into the next halving.”

MARA is planning to sell some of its Bitcoin holdings due to concerns about the asset downturn

According to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, MARA Holdings is willing to sell some of the Bitcoin on its balance sheet in 2026. MARA anticipates that if Bitcoin prices remain low or drop further, the company’s balance sheet and liquidity could take a hit, which is why it is planning a sell-off.

It further explained that the bulk of its revenue comes from Bitcoin mining and that a sustained downturn in Bitcoin prices would challenge its ability to manage expenses, debt, and strategic investments. 

It also noted that it might need substantial cash on hand to repurchase its convertible senior notes in 2027, which may necessitate selling part or all of its BTC holdings. The decision marks a departure from MARA’s earlier strategy of holding mined Bitcoin indefinitely, as financial challenges make a sell-off more likely. By the end of 2025, MARA held about 53,822 Bitcoin on its balance sheet.

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