Arthur Hayes sticks with $250K Bitcoin target as year’s end nears

Arthur Hayes, a seasoned market analyst and former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, remains steadfast in his $250,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price projection, highlighting the catalysts that could drive the potential rally.

During his appearance on the Milk Road Show, he refused to back down on the potential of BTC even as the year comes to a close. With just 33 days left in the year, Hayes continues to insist on a 170% surge to a new all-time high.

His forecast generated discussion among crypto investors. At this time, reporters reached out to the Bitcoin supporter for comment on the situation. When they asked him to weigh in on the set target record, Hayes noted:

“I’m going to stick with it,” he said, adding that Bitcoin either gets to the price or not.

Hayes says Bitcoin has bottomed and is now ready to rise

Supporting his bullish outlook, Hayes believes Bitcoin has already hit its bottom. Specifically, he earlier called the plunge to $80,600 last week as the bottom for BTC, a prediction that appears to be going in the right direction at least for now. Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded almost 12% from that low to its current price of $90,864.

Last week, Bitcoin plummeted below $90,000, reaching a seven-month low, just one day after erasing all of its 2025 gains. According to Hayes, the leading cryptocurrency, which hit the low $90,000s, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stock indexes are near all-time highs, was a clear indication that a “credit event is brewing.” 

According to Hayes, Bitcoin now has support from the US dollar liquidity, which he believes has also attained its bottom. He continues to say that the Oct. 10 leverage washout, which wiped out billions of dollars from the crypto market, has stirred a reset.

Interestingly, Hayes argues that much of the inflow into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) was tied to a “basis trade” strategy. In this setup, major institutions such as Goldman Sachs buy shares of the Bitcoin ETF and then use those holdings as collateral to borrow funds and open short positions on the CME against the underlying asset.

As funding rates fall, these players unwind the trade by selling the ETF and buying back the futures at a profit. According to Hayes, this leveraged institutional strategy has likely now played out.

“We are bottom here and can go higher,” Hayes concluded

Hayes eyes Fed rate cuts and end of QT to fuel Bitcoin’s next surge

For the moment, he argues that the now-bottomed US dollar liquidity, along with the end of quantitative tightening (QT), will drive the next leg up for Bitcoin. Notably, the Federal Reserve System (Fed) slashed interest rates by 25 basis points in October, suggesting that the days of tightening the money supply are almost over.

Polymarket data suggests an 87% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by December 10. Such high confidence in prediction markets indicates that traders are heavily betting on a shift in monetary policy. These odds have climbed sharply from previous weeks, reflecting a growing consensus on the Fed’s next move. Analysts also expect the Fed to conclude quantitative tightening as early as December 1, ahead of the anticipated rate cut.

Hayes is confident that these events will propel the leading crypto to its current all-time high of $126,220 to $250,000 by the end of the year. However, Hayes notes he may be wrong, but he was not bothered about that.

“I’m long, right? I’m still happy either way,” Hayes stated.

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