GBP/USD slides toward 1.3200 as Trump threats boost US Dollar

• GBP/USD slumps on Trump’s tougher rhetoric.
• Mixed US jobs data kept traders focused on Friday’s payrolls release.
• Iran-Hormuz headlines helped Sterling trim losses after hitting two-day lows.

The British Pound retreats during the North American session after US President Donald Trump escalated the conflict, hinting that it will at least extend for 2 to 3 weeks. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.32144, down 0.40%.

Sterling weakens as war fears and oil surge sour market mood

Late Wednesday, Trump commented that the mission in Iran will be finished very fast and warned Tehran that the US would strike energy plants and Oil facilities if there is no deal. He reiterated that the US did not need the Strait of Hormuz, challenging allies to work to reopen it, given its dependence on energy products from the Middle East. After this, the Greenback rallied, global equities dropped, and crude prices surged.

The GBP/USD tumbled to fresh two-day lows at 1.3181 before reclaiming 1.3200. Meanwhile, reports that “Iran reportedly drafts a protocol with Oman for the Strait of Hormuz traffic,” via IRNA, sparked a recovery in the pair, trimming some of its earlier losses.

US jobs data mixed, NFP eyed

Data-wise, US jobs data was mixed, with jobless claims improving, while the Challenger report showed that companies slashed 60,620 jobs in March, up more than 24% from 2025 figures. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 came in at 202,000, below estimates of 212,000 and down from the previous week's 215,000.

Regarding Fedspeak, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that monetary policy is well-positioned to respond to uncertainty. She added that they —the Fed- are prepared to make adjustments to interest rates “as appropriate, warning that the Middle East conflict clouds the future of the economy.

On Friday, there’s a holiday in the UK and the US, due to Good Friday, but economic data will continue to flow in the US. March Nonfarm Payroll figures will be released, expected at 60,000, an improvement following February’s dismal -92,000 print. The Unemployment Rate is projected at 4.4%, unchanged from the previous month.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3240. The pair retains a mildly bearish near-term bias, with price slipping below the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3480, which now cap the broader trend context. The break under the prior ascending support line from 1.3035 shifts the technical tone, as recent closes have gravitated toward the lower half of the recent range while the downward-sloping resistance line from 1.3869 continues to limit recovery attempts. Fed sentiment readings trending higher underscore a firmer dollar backdrop, aligning with the prevailing downside pressure on the pair.

Initial resistance is now seen near 1.3350, where recent swing highs converge with the descending trend line, followed by the 1.3480 zone defined by the compressed moving averages. A daily close above 1.3480 would be needed to ease bearish pressure and expose the 1.3550 area next. On the downside, immediate support emerges around 1.3220, just above the trend-line origin at 1.3035, which marks the next key level if sellers extend control. A sustained break below 1.3035 would confirm a deeper downswing, opening the door toward the 1.2900 region.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)