EUR/USD rises above 1.1550 following recent Trump remarks
- EUR/USD rises as the US Dollar weakens on improving risk appetite amid easing Middle East tensions.
- Trump said that the US would leave the Iran war soon, with withdrawal possible within two to three weeks.
- ECB officials signaled recent developments may warrant a more hawkish monetary policy stance.
EUR/USD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 1.1560 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair advances as the US Dollar (USD) softens, weighed down by fading safe-haven demand amid a moderation in Middle East tensions.
US President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the United States (US) would be “leaving very soon” from the Iran war, noting that a withdrawal could take place within two to three weeks. The comments reinforce earlier remarks suggesting that US strategic objectives have largely been fulfilled, raising expectations of a relatively swift resolution to the conflict.
Trump further emphasized that a formal agreement with Tehran is not a necessary condition for ending hostilities. When questioned on the need for a deal, he remarked that Iran “doesn’t have to make a deal,” underscoring a preference for concluding the situation based on military outcomes rather than diplomatic negotiations.
On the Iranian side, President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed a willingness to de-escalate regional tensions if specific guarantees are met. However, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took a firmer stance, asserting that Tehran is not seeking a temporary ceasefire but rather a complete termination of the war. He stressed the need for binding assurances against future aggression as well as compensation for damages, highlighting lingering uncertainty around the conflict’s resolution.
Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.5% Year-Over-Year (YoY) in March, falling short of market expectations of 2.7%. Meanwhile, core HICP, which strips out volatile components such as food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, advanced 2.3% YoY, slightly below both the forecast and the previous reading of 2.4%.
While both headline and core inflation figures came in below expectations, they still reflect persistent price pressures within the Eurozone economy. Notably, the data suggest that the Middle East conflict has already exerted a meaningful inflationary impact on the bloc, particularly through elevated energy costs.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated that recent developments could justify a more hawkish monetary policy stance. However, they also noted that the scale and timing of any policy response would depend on the severity and persistence of the energy shock stemming from the geopolitical situation.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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