USD/CHF gains ground above 0.7750 as Fed chair nomination supports US Dollar
- USD/CHF drifts higher to around 0.7780 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair provides temporary support to the US Dollar.
- US-Iran nuclear talks set for Oman on Friday.
The USD/CHF pair holds positive ground near 0.7780 during the early European session on Thursday, bolstered by renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Analysts expect the Greenback’s recovery will be short-lived as traders remain concerned about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence.
The USD rebounds after US President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as Fed chair last week. Traders anticipate a slower pace of interest rate cuts under his tenure and a focus on shrinking the Fed's balance sheet.
However, doubts over the US central bank's independence resurfaced following recent Trump comments. The US president said on Thursday that he would have passed on Kevin Warsh as his nominee to lead the US central bank if Warsh had expressed a desire to hike interest rates.
"For most of the year, including the next few weeks, the dollar is likely to be choppy," said Jane Foley, head of FX research at Rabobank. "We still don't think the market has fully put to bed concerns about Fed independence and credibility."
Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran negotiations later this week. Iranian and US officials confirmed on Wednesday that talks between their countries would be held in Oman on Friday. Any positive signs from a meeting could undermine the safe-haven currencies, such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and create a tailwind for the pair in the near term.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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