NZD surges after RBNZ delivers fully priced 25bps cut – BBH

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbs after the RBNZ delivers a fully priced 25bps cut and signals an end to its easing cycle, setting the stage for potential NZD gains into 2026, BBH FX analysts report.

RBNZ ends easing cycle, signals OCR steady until late 2026

"NZD outperforms after the RBNZ delivers a hawkish cut. As was fully priced in, the RBNZ trimmed the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 2.25%. The Committee voted 5-1 in favor of a cut, with the dissenter preferring no change. The OCR is now at the lower-end of the RBNZ’s new estimated neutral range between 2.2%-4.0%."

"More importantly, the RBNZ signaled it’s effectively done easing. The RBNZ scrapped its easing bias and instead stressed that 'future moves in the OCR will depend on how the outlook for medium-term inflation and the economy evolves'. Indeed, the RBNZ’s updated OCR forecast implies no change until Q4 2026 followed by rate hikes in Q1 2027."

"Bottom line: NZD/USD can edge higher as the Fed delivers more rate cuts and global economic activity is resilient. Of note, new RBNZ Governor Anna Breman starts on December 1 while interim Governor Christian Hawkesby will leave the RBNZ on November 30."