United States Dollar Index firms on Middle East tensions, Fed bets
- US Dollar Index stays stronger on safe-haven demand after Israel reported a missile launch from Yemen.
- The US Dollar may further advance as strong US jobs data boost expectations of a Fed interest rate hike this year.
- Traders expect the Fed to keep rates steady at the June meeting, the first led by Chairman Kevin Warsh.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding gains for the second successive day and trading around 100.10 during the Asian hours on Monday.
The Greenback receives support from increased safe-haven demand after the Israeli military stated a missile had been launched from Yemen towards Israeli territory, which has been intercepted by its aerial defense systems.
The Guardian reported that air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv, following the attack from Yemen. The retaliatory attacks from Yemen, whose military force, the Houthis, is backed by Iran, reflect that conflicts in the Middle East have started again.
The US Dollar gained ground after Friday’s stronger-than-expected US employment data released, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates later this year. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 172,000 jobs in May, compared to 179,000 (revised from 115,000) in the previous reading, and the Unemployment Rate held at 4.3% during the same period.
Traders expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at the June 16-17 meeting, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. However, expectations for future monetary tightening have gained traction. Escalating Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, sparking fresh concerns about a resurgence of inflationary pressures.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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