Trump’s approval rating climbs to 44% as recession fears ease

President Donald Trump’s job approval has inched up to 44%, based on new polling data gathered by Reuters/Ipsos that ended on Tuesday, as fewer Americans now believe the economy is falling apart.

The results show a two-point increase from a similar survey run between April 25 and 27, where Trump sat at 42%. The same poll puts his approval on economic matters at 39%, compared to 36% last round.

Trump started his presidency back in January 2021 with 47% support. That number slid over the years, largely because of nonstop fights with global trade partners.

Americans didn’t take kindly to the back-and-forth of tariffs, especially with China, which hit stock prices and got economists yelling “recession” from every corner. But now, with Trump easing off some of the heat—including cutting down those sky-high tariffs on Monday morning—there’s a bit of relief.

Markets have noticed. The S&P 500 index is up 17% from its lowest point during Trump’s second time in office. That low came shortly after he rolled out fresh tariffs. Now that some of those are being pulled back, investors seem to be breathing again.

Americans are still stressed about the economy

Even though things are looking slightly less chaotic, nobody’s exactly throwing a party. The poll shows 69% of Americans still think a recession is possible. That’s lower than the 76% who felt that way back in mid-April, but still high.

Fear over the stock market also dipped—from 67% to 60%—but again, that doesn’t mean confidence has returned. It just means the panic has simmered down a bit.

Trump’s go-to argument lately is that Joe Biden should be blamed for the mess. He keeps pointing fingers at Biden’s handling of the COVID-19-era economy, when inflation ran wild. While prices did cool toward the end of Biden’s presidency, the damage was done. The latest Labor Department figures show inflation in April wasn’t as bad as expected. That gave Trump a bit of an opening, but economists still say his trade policies could hike prices again later this year.

The poll didn’t let Trump off the hook. 59% said that if a recession actually hits this year, it would be his fault. Just 37% said Biden would deserve the blame. So while his approval is improving, the public is still ready to hold him responsible if things go south.

Stagflation warnings hit, but data stays mild

The Federal Reserve, after its May 7 meeting, warned that the country faces a real risk of stagflation—slowing growth plus rising prices—because of Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, which went into effect starting April 2. That warning came fast, just weeks after the new trade moves dropped. But so far, the numbers haven’t backed up the worst-case scenario.

The inflation data out Tuesday shows prices have not surged—at least not yet. Even the core inflation number, which leaves out food and gas, was lower than many analysts thought it would be. That doesn’t mean everything’s fine, though.

The data only covers a short time after the new tariffs started, and some businesses are still eating the cost instead of passing it to customers. There was also a wave of imported goods early in the year, which helped slow down prices but also dragged GDP growth into negative territory for the first quarter.

Trump’s team paused the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, signed a temporary deal with China, and closed a new trade agreement with the UK meant to cool off the threat of rising prices and keep consumer spending, which drives the US economy, from collapsing.

Cryptopolitan Academy: Want to grow your money in 2025? Learn how to do it with DeFi in our upcoming webclass. Save Your Spot