Chinese Yuan: Consolidation after sharper drop against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH fell more than expected to 6.7766 before rebounding, with the sharp decline seen stabilising and intraday consolidation likely between 6.7780 and 6.7920. For the next 1–3 weeks, they expect range trading between 6.7700 and 6.8100. On a multi‑week view, tentative upward momentum requires a break above the 21‑week EMA at 6.8430 for a sustained recovery.

Offshore Yuan pair seen range bound

"24-HOUR VIEW: The following are excerpts from our update last Friday, when USD was at 6.7930: “Downward momentum is building, and the risk is on the downside. That said, any decline is unlikely to reach 6.7800. To maintain the build-up in momentum, USD must hold below 6.8000.” Our directional view was not wrong, but USD fell more than expected to 6.7766. USD rebounded from the low to close 0.21% lower at 6.7818. The sharp decline appears to have stabilised somewhat, and today USD is likely to consolidate between 6.7780 and 6.7920."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Wednesday (08 Jul, spot at 6.8050), we highlighted that “upward momentum is starting to build, and if USD closes above 6.8080, it is likely to head higher toward last month’s high of 6.8195.” We revised our view on Friday (10 Jul, spot at 6.7930). We indicated that “while our ‘strong support’ level has not been breached, the build-up in upward momentum has faded.” We added, “for the time being, we expect USD to trade in a range, most likely between 6.7700 and 6.8100.” Our view remains unchanged."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)