China’s Trade Surplus widens in May: What CNY723.98B Trade Balance means for the Australian Dollar
China's Trade Balance for May, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, arrived at CNY723.98 billion, expanding from the previous figure of CNY585.69 billion.
More to come...
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD remains capped under the key 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, AUD/USD keeps a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The pair’s slide back under this longer-term average suggests rallies are likely to face supply near that region, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 39 leans toward weak momentum without yet signalling oversold conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 100-day SMA at 0.7075, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure. Until then, the lack of nearby mapped supports on the chart leaves the pair vulnerable to further slippage, with traders watching price action and momentum rather than clear structural floors to gauge where buyers may emerge.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Trade Balance USD
The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.
Read more.Last release: Sat May 09, 2026 03:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: $84.82B
Consensus: $83.3B
Previous: $51.13B
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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