UK: Surveys and GDP outlook – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects a relatively quiet UK data week, with focus on March DMP survey signals around the Iran conflict, inflation expectations, and hiring plans. He forecasts only marginal upside risk to Q4-25 GDP, with the ONS likely confirming 0.1% q-o-q growth. Business investment may show some upside, but not enough to shift the headline.

Surveys, inflation expectations and growth

"We see the single month price expectations measure rising nearly 1pp, to near 4%, taking the 3mma to 3.6%. We expect wage growth expectations to stay put at 3.6% (3mma). We will also be watching closely firms' CPI expectations."

"We expect firms' 1y-ahead CPI expectations to push to 3.9%, pushing the 3mma to 3.3%. On the 3-y ahead measure, we see firms' CPI expectations rising to 3% (3mma)."

"We will be keeping a close eye on how firms are adjusting their hiring plans. In February, employment growth expectations reached its highest level in five months. We think this will reverse course."

"We don't expect any meaningful changes to the Q4-25 GDP print. On the various headline measures, we expect the ONS to confirm that Q4-25 GDP growth expanded by 0.1% q-o-q. We see risks skewed to the upside — but only marginally, given the strength of our nowcasts."

"On the breakdown, we see some upside to business investment data (-2.2% q-o-q). We don't think this will move the dial too much on the overall headline. Underneath the surface, we will be watching for the latest consumer trends data and the detailed sector accounts."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)