United States Dollar Index holds losses around 101.00 despite increasing risk aversion
- US Dollar Index struggles as traders balance renewed inflation concerns against a softening US economic backdrop.
- Unclear guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh clouds the Dollar's long-term outlook.
- Safe-haven demand from persistent Middle East tensions may cap the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 101.00 during the Asian session on Thursday.
The Greenback faces downward pressure as traders weigh renewed inflation concerns, triggered by surging energy costs, against a softening US economic backdrop. While markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, shifting policy expectations and unclear guidance from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have added an extra layer of uncertainty to the Dollar's long-term outlook.
However, the downside of the US Dollar could be restrained due to the safe-haven demand as Middle East tensions remained in focus. Tensions escalated sharply after US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure if Tehran targets ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to vow swift retaliation against US-linked energy assets across the region.
Iran-backed Houthi militants launched missile and drone attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The assault marks the first direct strikes on tankers in the waterway, endangering a vital alternative export route for Saudi crude and opening a dangerous new front in the conflict.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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