Forex Today: US Dollar falls even as failed talks and Hormuz shutdown spark risk-off wave
Here is what you need to know for Tuesday, April 14:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell on Monday, as markets digest headlines of failed Iran-United States (US) peace talks over the weekend and reports that US President Donald Trump moved the US Navy to close the Strait of Hormuz, a development that would typically fuel a strong safe-haven bid for the Greenback.
However, price action suggests that the USD is declining as investors reassess the escalation's durability and credibility, particularly after Iran indicated it might reduce uranium enrichment, suggesting a potential off-ramp.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.26% | -0.28% | 0.02% | -0.34% | -0.43% | -0.53% | -0.70% | |
| EUR | 0.26% | -0.04% | 0.26% | -0.08% | -0.19% | -0.28% | -0.40% | |
| GBP | 0.28% | 0.04% | 0.30% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.25% | -0.41% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.26% | -0.30% | -0.40% | -0.48% | -0.58% | -0.68% | |
| CAD | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.40% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.35% | |
| AUD | 0.43% | 0.19% | 0.15% | 0.48% | 0.05% | -0.09% | -0.17% | |
| NZD | 0.53% | 0.28% | 0.25% | 0.58% | 0.17% | 0.09% | -0.13% | |
| CHF | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.41% | 0.68% | 0.35% | 0.17% | 0.13% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The EUR/USD pair is pushing higher near the 1.1765 price region, benefiting from the softer US Dollar (USD). In the absence of Eurozone data, the move is largely a Greenback-driven correction rather than a reflection of Euro strength.
The GBP/USD pair is on a week-long winning streak near the 1.3500 level, supported by the weaker USD backdrop. The British Pound is capitalizing on the shift in flows away from the Greenback.
The USD/JPY pair is edging lower toward 159.30, with the Japanese Yen gaining modest ground. Unlike the previous two sessions, the Yen is now outperforming the USD as the latter loses its safe-haven appeal.
The AUD/USD pair surged toward the 0.7090 price region as risk sentiment stabilized marginally and the USD weakened.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil fell to $98.90 per barrel, even as concerns about the Strait of Hormuz being shut rose earlier in the day.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near the $4,730 level, muted amid investor focus on riskier assets.
What’s next in the docket:
Tuesday, April 14:
- US IMF Meeting
- AU Westpac Consumer Confidence April
- CN Exports March
- CN Imports March
- CN Trade Balance March
- Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices March
- US ADP Employment Change 4-week average
- US March PPIs
Wednesday, April 15:
- US IMF Meeting
- France CPI March
- Eurozone Industrial Production February
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index April
- US Fed Beige Book
Thursday, April 16:
- US IMF Meeting
- AU Employment Change March
- AU Unemployment Rate March
- CN GDP Q1
- CN Industrial Production March
- CN Retail Sales March
- UK GDP February
- UK Industrial Production February
- UK Manufacturing Production February
- Italian CPIs March
- Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices March
- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey April
- US Industrial Production March
Friday, April 17:
- US IMF Meeting
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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