Ripple sees retail dip buying as whale participation lags and exchange reserves rebalance

• Ripple’s on-chain wallet activity shows a surge in retail demand while whale activity stays minimal.
• XRP deposits on exchanges resurge, driving reserves to November 2025 levels, suggesting a profit-taking phase.
• The derivatives market sees a dip in XRP futures Open Interest, signaling risk-off sentiment among investors.

Ripple (XRP) remains under pressure, trading below $1.40 at press time on Monday, as the ongoing US-Iran war weighs down on the broader cryptocurrency market. On-chain activity shows a surge in retail demand for Ripple, as the number of wallets holding under 100 XRP rises, but large wallet investors, commonly called whales, lag in participation. 

Meanwhile, XRP reserves on exchanges rebalance to a higher level from November 2025, suggesting sell-off pressure, and the falling XRP futures Open Interest aligns with the broader market risk-off sentiment. 

Whales on standby as retail buys the XRP dip

Santiment data shows an increase in the number of wallets with under 100 XRP, reaching a record high of 5.66 million, while wallets with 100 XRP to 100,000 XRP reach a record high of 2.01 million. However, wallets holding more than 100,000 XRP remain broadly stagnant at 32,054, following a sharp decline in early February. 

The rise in the number of wallets holding less than 100,000 XRP indicates a surge in small- and mid-tier investors, while whales may be distributing after the February drop. Typically, an increase in retail demand or interest provides exit liquidity for large wallet investors to profit-take, risking a further decline in XRP.

XRP deposits on the rise

CryptoQuant data shows a rise in XRP reserves on Binance, suggesting heavy XRP deposits, which aligns with the profit-taking narrative. Data shows XRP reserves are at 2.79 billion XRP, up from 2.55 billion on February 9. A consistent increase in XRP reserves could exert downward pressure as market sentiment falters. 

XRP Futures at risk

CoinGlass data shows the XRP futures Open Interest (OI) is down more than 5% to $2.33 billion on Monday, from $2.47 billion the previous day, suggesting a decline in the notional value of outstanding contracts either due to forced liquidations, reduced leverage, or both. The XRP OI has been largely declining so far this year, indicating a decline in investor interest. 

XRP remains on thin ice as whale activity stays minimal, deposits rise on exchanges, and futures OI stays low. A sustained trend could extend the decline in XRP, which is down roughly 25% year-to-date (YTD).

For a renewed recovery, either factor should flip, which could ease downside pressure and push XRP above $1.40.