Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH at realized price, breakout or resistance?

Ethereum price today: $2,330

• Ethereum has reclaimed its realized price, also known as investors' average cost basis, after jumping above $2,300.
• Whales are a major catalyst behind ETH's recent gains, accumulating over 540,000 ETH last week.
• ETH is tilting toward a pause after facing the resistance near $2,388.

Ethereum (ETH) has reclaimed the $2,300 level for the first time since early February, rising more than 12% over the past week despite sustained Middle East war tensions.

The move has pushed ETH above its realized price, which is the average cost basis of investors, at $2,306. Historically, a rise above the realized price could lead to distribution as investors break-even if the trend is weak. On the flip side, investors could defend the level to remain in profit if the trend is strong.

Whales — wallets with a balance of 10K-100K ETH — are one of the major catalysts behind ETH's recent strength, accumulating 540K ETH last week.

In contrast, retail holders or wallets holding 100-1K & 1K-10K ETH, offloaded a combined 370K ETH, although distribution from the latter is cooling down.

The Exchange Netflow, which measures the difference between coins flowing in and out of exchanges, shows outflows have dominated in recent weeks, indicating rising buying pressure.

A similar trend is visible in US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have recorded five consecutive days of net buying totalling $248 million — the first time since mid-January.

Despite the bullish interest across key metrics, the ETH Coinbase Premium Index, which measures sentiment among US traders, has flipped negative, a deviation that only occurs occasionally. The move shows ETH is defying weak buying activity from US investors on Coinbase.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH could see a brief pause following potential rejection at $2,388

Ethereum has experienced $100.5 million in futures liquidations over the past 24 hours, led by $68.2 million in short liquidations.

In the daily chart, ETH trades above $2,330. The near-term bias is cautiously bullish as price extends above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $2,100 while also reclaiming the 50-day EMA around $2,220, signalling an improving short-term trend against a still-declining 100-day EMA near $2,510.

Momentum conditions back this upside tilt, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding in the mid-60s after breaking above the 50 line and Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) remaining in overbought territory, indicating sustained buying pressure rather than a brief short-covering spike.

ETH faces immediate resistance at $2,388, where it is tilting toward a rejection after the latest impulsive leg, followed by a more strategic barrier at $2,746. On the downside, initial support is at the reclaimed $2,108 level, which now aligns with the rising 20-day EMA and should act as the first line of defense on pullbacks, while $1,741 marks a deeper support level that would come into view only if the current bullish structure fails.

A daily close above $2,388 would reinforce the upside bias toward the mid-$2,700s, whereas a drop below $2,108 would downgrade the outlook toward neutral.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)