Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Outperformance set to extend as ETF inflows stay strong despite war fears

• Bitcoin shows relative resilience, up over 8% so far this week, despite continued uncertainty stemming from the prolonged US-Iran war.
• US-listed ETFs record an inflow of $586.99 million through Thursday, pointing to the third consecutive week of positive flows.
• Analyst notes that while BTC has yet to fully live up to its “digital gold” narrative, its role as a “digital escape hatch” is gaining relevance.

Bitcoin (BTC) shows strength so far this week, trading above $71,000 on Friday, despite continued uncertainty stemming from the prolonged US-Iran war. Institutional demand for the Crypto King continues to strengthen, pointing to a third consecutive week of inflows from spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Meanwhile, the analysts report BTC’s “digital escape hatch” narrative is gaining relevance.

Bitcoin remains resilient 

Bitcoin’s price started the week on a positive note, rising nearly 4% on Monday, after US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could end “very soon”. He further added that “everything they have is gone, including their leadership”, reports Fox News. 

Later, the news came in that the International Energy Agency (IEA) discussed a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves among G7 member countries to stabilize markets, which could add temporary supply to the market and cap the sharp spike in crude prices. 

The IEA news, alongside Trump’s comments on the war, boosted investor confidence with optimism across equities and cryptos, alongside softer oil prices.

This optimism gradually faded during the week as the US Dollar (USD) continued to attract safe-haven demand, with the DXY index nearing November’s high. Market participants remain concerned that the war with Iran could keep energy prices surging, potentially reigniting inflationary pressures and forcing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay its expected interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the US equities have nearly erased Monday’s recovery amid the cautious sentiment. However, Bitcoin has shown relatively limited downside sensitivity. 

The Crypto King has printed five consecutive green candlesticks and gained more than 8% so far this week, indicating its resilience amid broader market uncertainty.

Institutional and corporate demand is still strong

Institutional demand remained robust so far this week, supporting the BTC price. According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded an inflow of $586.99 million through Thursday. If this trend continues up to Friday, it would mark the third consecutive week of inflows since the end of February. If these inflows continue and intensify, BTC could see a recovery in the upcoming weeks.

Dom Harz, co-founder of BOB, told FXStreet that “Despite the macro uncertainty, Bitcoin is showing better-than-expected resilience, consolidating around the $70K mark as global markets continue to navigate the ongoing geopolitical shocks. What’s interesting is the surge in institutional investment in Bitcoin despite wider uncertainty in global markets, as we saw net ETF inflows surpass $500M this week.”

Harz added, “Indeed, Bitcoin is in its transition phase as a financial tool. Institutions want more than exposure to Bitcoin and are increasingly looking for the infrastructure designed to unlock Bitcoin’s financial utility.”

On the corporate front, Michael Saylor announced on X on Monday that Strategy had purchased another 17,994 BTC, following its purchase of 3,015 BTC the previous week. Monday’s purchase brings the firm’s total holdings to 738,731 BTC, highlighting its continued aggressive accumulation strategy. Strategy’s average purchase price for all its holdings is $75,862, slightly above current market prices.

Could Bitcoin serve as the “digital gold” investors are expecting?

QCP Capital reported earlier this week that, amid rising uncertainty, global equity markets have turned defensive.

“That said, US Treasuries and Gold also failed to provide their usual haven bid, with both coming under pressure as surging crude prices stoke inflation fears and push yields higher. Instead, the US Dollar has emerged as the preferred defensive asset, supported by elevated yields and the US status as a net energy exporter,” said the analyst at QCP Capital.

The report further explained that despite broad-based weakness in risk assets amid heightened market stress, BTC has been notably resilient, a pattern the crypto market has not seen in some time. 

The analyst concluded that, "while BTC has yet to fully live up to its 'digital gold' narrative, its practical use as a 'digital escape hatch' is becoming increasingly relevant, particularly in Gulf countries amid episodes of currency volatility and political uncertainty. Although its long-term trajectory remains uncertain, recent price action amid escalating tensions suggests growing recognition of this function."

Too early to say BTC is bottoming

On the weekly chart, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has found support around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $65,520 (drawn from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 all-time high of $126,199), holding strong for over a month. As of this week, BTC has gained over 8%, moving over the immediate resistance, its 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $68,055 as of Friday.

If BTC closes and finds support around the 200-week EMA, it could extend the recovery toward the next psychological resistance at $75,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 34 on the weekly chart, rebounding from the oversold territory and points upward, indicating fading bearish strength. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the same chart also showed a bearish crossover in mid-August, which remains intact, supporting the negative outlook.

On the daily chart, BTC’s near-term bias turns cautiously bullish as price approaches the upper boundary of the parallel channel that capped action between roughly $72,600 and $65,900. A breakout would signal a potential end to the short-term corrective phase. 

Daily closes remain well below the 50-day and 100-day EMAs clustered around $72,900 and $79,900, respectively, so the broader trend context still acts as overhead pressure, but the upside breakout would improve immediate momentum. 

The RSI on the daily chart at 55 shows momentum back above the midline, while the MACD indicator on the same period holds in positive territory, with the MACD line above the signal line and a modestly positive histogram, all reinforcing a recovering bullish bias.

Initial support now aligns near $68,800, the mid-point of the channel and a decisive hold above this band would keep the short-term bullish bias intact. Below there, $66,000 and the recent swing floor around $65,900 form the next support ladder.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the $72,600 channel top, followed by the 50-day EMA at $72,900. A sustained daily close above the 50-day EMA would open the path toward the 100-day EMA near $79,900, shifting the focus to a more durable bullish phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)