Fundamentals increasingly improving in Copper market – ANZ

Market expectations of a weak outlook have weighed significantly on the Copper market in 2023. However, it looks to be turning around, analysts at ANZ Bank say.

Copper market moving back into a deficit to provide support to prices in the second half of the year

Copper’s fundamentals continue to beat expectations amid an uncertain economic backdrop. We expect the inflection point in central bank monetary policies to trigger a broader improvement in sentiment in the coming months.

Copper has a broad consumption spread across the global economy, leading to concerns over demand amid tighter monetary policies and weaker economic growth. However, it has remained strong amid an increased focus on electrification and decarbonisation. We expect growth in demand from China, US and India, three of the top five consumers, to reach 4.3% in 2024. This comes amid increasing supply-side issues. Unplanned disruptions are likely to remain high as producers struggle with high costs and falling quality issues. Political risks also remain high, putting new mine development at risk.

We see the market returning to deficit this year, which should underpin prices. We maintain our short-term target of $9,000 and expect that to lift above $10,000 over the next 12 months.