WTI turns upside down as US-Iran tout progress in peace talks
- The Oil price is down to near $75.50 as both the US and Iran have hailed progress in peace talks.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said that Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports.
- WTI could slide to pre-war levels around $67.20 if the Strait of Hormuz remains open.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades 1.2% lower near $75.50 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The Oil price gives back its opening gains and turns negative as both the United States (US) and Iran have expressed progress in talks toward reaching a deal in 60 days held in Switzerland over the weekend.
Earlier in the day, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated “great progress” after talks, citing that Tehran had secured what he described as waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the lifting of the US naval blockade on its seaports, the release of some frozen assets and the launch of a reconstruction and development plan, CNBC reported.
A positive commentary from Iran matters more than the US, as the nation announced the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, citing continued hostilities in Lebanon.
US Vice President JD Vance also hailed “great progress” after meeting with negotiators from Iran.
Meanwhile, Qatar and Pakistan, mediating peace between the US and Iran, have also touted significant progress in peace talks after meeting in Switzerland.
“High Level Committee has agreed upon a roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days, laying the foundation for the immediate commencement of further technical talks,” according to the Pak-Qatar joint statement.
During the early Asian session, a spokesperson from the Iranian Foreign Ministry has said that “a formal transit mechanism was successfully arranged to guarantee the safe passage of commercial vessels through the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway.”
WTI technical analysis
Bias: The WTI US Oil trades lower at around $75.50, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds well below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at roughly $84.05. The positioning under this short-term EMA suggests rallies remain corrective at best, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 33 hints at persistent downside pressure.
Resistance: On the topside, the immediate hurdle is the 20-day EMA clustered around $84.05, which acts as the first key resistance that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery toward $90.
Support: Looking down, the Oil price could return to pre-war levels around $67.20 if it slides below the June 18 low at $72.79.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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