Forex Today: ECB rate decision and US data to ramp up volatility
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 5:
Major currency pairs fluctuate within their weekly ranges early Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions and the US economic calendar will offer Challenger Job Cuts data for May, weekly Initial Jobless Claims reading, alongside the Goods Trade Balance figures for April. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on the outlook and respond to questions in the post-meeting press conference. Finally, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to deliver speeches in the second half of the day.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.54% | -0.62% | -0.43% | -0.48% | -0.91% | -1.13% | -0.46% | |
| EUR | 0.54% | -0.08% | 0.11% | 0.05% | -0.36% | -0.63% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.62% | 0.08% | 0.21% | 0.13% | -0.28% | -0.54% | 0.16% | |
| JPY | 0.43% | -0.11% | -0.21% | -0.05% | -0.45% | -0.71% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.48% | -0.05% | -0.13% | 0.05% | -0.41% | -0.68% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.91% | 0.36% | 0.28% | 0.45% | 0.41% | -0.20% | 0.52% | |
| NZD | 1.13% | 0.63% | 0.54% | 0.71% | 0.68% | 0.20% | 0.71% | |
| CHF | 0.46% | -0.08% | -0.16% | 0.09% | -0.03% | -0.52% | -0.71% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) came under pressure following disappointing macroeconomic data releases on Wednesday. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that employment in the private sector rose by 37,000 in May, missing the market expectation of 115,000 by a wide margin. Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 in May from 51.6 in April. The USD Index fell more than 0.4% on Wednesday before entering a consolidation phase at around 99.00 early Thursday. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade marginally lower after Wall Street's main indexes closed mixed.
The data from Germany showed early Thursday that Factory Orders grew by 0.6% on a monthly basis in April. This print followed the 3.4% increase reported in March and came in better than the market expectation for a decrease of 1%. The ECB is widely expected to lower key rates by 25 basis points (bps) following the June meeting. Alongside the policy statement, the ECB will also release the updated staff projections. EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1400 in the European morning on Thursday.
GBP/USD benefited from the selling pressure surrounding the USD and closed in positive territory on Wednesday. The pair fluctuates in a narrow channel at around 1.3550 early Thursday.
USD/JPY declined sharply and lost nearly 0.9% on Wednesday. The pair corrects higher and trades above 143.00 to begin the European session.
AUD/USD holds steady at around 0.6500 after rising nearly 0.5% on Wednesday. The data from China showed earlier in the day that the Caixin Services PMI improved to 51.1 in May from 50.7 in April.
Gold continues to trade in a narrow band above $3,350 after posting small gains on Wednesday.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
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