British Pound holds firm as Trump ceasefire shock tests USD

• Trump says ceasefire is over, reviving Middle East risk.
• Fed minutes show tightening bias, but officials await data.
• Burnham support and IMF upgrade cushion Sterling sentiment.

The Pound Sterling holds firm on Friday during the North American session as risk appetite deteriorated after US President Trump posted on social media that the ceasefire is over, even though negotiations continued. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3406, unchanged.

GBP/USD steadies as geopolitics, Fed minutes and UK politics collide

This week, the GBP/USD is poised to finish with gains of over 0.58% following the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East. The end of the ceasefire between the US and Iran could bolster the Greenback even though both countries are set to continue negotiations next week, in Switzerland.

In the meantime, the Fed’s meeting minutes showed that officials favoured further tightening but supported holding rates, as they assess incoming data. Data-wise, Initial Jobless Claims were better than expected, though did little to move the needle, as market participants were digesting geopolitical news.

Aside from this, the US economic docket was light, but it will get traction next week. Investors are eyeing the release of inflation data in the consumer and producer side, alongside speeches by Federal Reserve officials, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and the appearance of the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the US Congress.

In the UK, the schedule was also absent, but traders are supporting Sterling amid comments from the former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, who is set to become the new Prime Minister.

Regarding political news, Burnham has already taken the first step to be the new PM. He secured the support of the majority of Labour MPs to succeed the current PM, Keir Starmer.

Next week, the UK economic calendar will feature speeches by the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, and Governor Andrew Bailey. Alongside this, traders will eye the release of BRC Retail Sales, followed by the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in May.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded forecasts for the UK economy, predicting aa 1% growth in 2026, affirming that it would be the third fastest growing economy in the G7, just behind of Canada and the US.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3421. The pair holds above the latest reading of the 50/100/200-day simple moving averages (SMA) cluster at 1.3394, suggesting a modestly constructive near-term tone while still operating below the broken resistance and support trend-line levels around 1.3500. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 59.2 leans towards bullish momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that buyers retain the upper hand as long as price stays supported over the nearby SMA floor.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the SMA cluster around 1.3394, just below the current spot, with the latest close at 1.3421 acting as a nearby pivot level for short-term dip-buying interest. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the former support trend-line break near 1.3501, followed closely by the downward-sloping resistance trend-line break at 1.3504, where a sustained clearance would open the path for a more decisive bullish extension in the days ahead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)