Australian Dollar falls toward 0.7100 as Unemployment Rate climbs in April
- AUD/USD loses ground following the release of softer employment data from Australia.
- Australia’s Unemployment Rate rose to 4.5% in April; meanwhile, the Employment Change dropped by 18.6K jobs.
- Trump stated US-Iran negotiations are in their final stages, threatening military action within days if Iran rejects his terms.
AUD/USD depreciates after registering over 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) declines following the release of softer Australian labor market data.
Australia’s Unemployment Rate rose to 4.5% in April, up from 4.3% in March. This figure came in above the market consensus, which had predicted the rate to hold steady at 4.3%. Meanwhile, the Employment Change dropped by 18.6K jobs in April. This decline followed a revised increase of 23.3K jobs in March and fell significantly short of the consensus forecast, which had anticipated a gain of 17.5K jobs.
A surprise jump in the unemployment rate and a net loss in jobs suggest the labor market is finally buckling under the weight of previous rate hikes. Traders may quickly dial back expectations for further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hikes.
S&P Global reported that the preliminary reading of Australia's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 50.3 in May from 51.3 in April. The downturn was even more pronounced in the service sector, where the Services PMI eased to 47.7 in May from 50.7 in April, sliding into contractionary territory. Consequently, the Composite PMI fell to 47.8 in May, down from the previous month's reading of 50.4.
The AUD/USD pair also struggles as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm as traders monitor the economic implications of peace negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran, alongside heightened threats to the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.
A Bloomberg report on Wednesday indicated that US President Donald Trump characterized the ongoing negotiations with Iran as being in their final stages. However, President Trump also reiterated a firm pledge to resume military actions within days if Iran rejects his terms. In response, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized that Tehran has no intention of capitulating, stating on the social media platform X that attempting to force a surrender through coercion is nothing more than an illusion.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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