Pound Sterling softens as markets await Fed and BoE rate decisions
- GBP/USD drifts lower to near 1.3525 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its April meeting on Wednesday.
- The BoE is likely to keep rates on hold on Thursday.
The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3525 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) later this week.
The Fed is likely to keep the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, where it has sat since January. Deutsche Bank analysts noted a repricing of Fed policy toward a more hawkish stance, driven by persistent oil-related inflation.
Traders will closely watch Jerome Powell’s press conference after the meeting for fresh impetus. Any hawkish comments from Fed officials could provide some support to the Greenback and create a headwind for the major pair.
Markets expect the UK central bank to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, and traders will be watching for any signs it is moving towards raising rates. Analysts see the UK economy as particularly vulnerable to the rise in energy prices caused by the war due to the country's heavy use of natural gas.
"Our baseline forecast assumes Bank Rate will remain on hold for the rest of the year," said Edward Allenby, senior UK economist at Oxford Economics. "The committee will have more information about how the energy shock is feeding through to the economy by the end-July meeting,” Allenby added.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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