Canadian Dollar slips as USD safe-haven bid offsets oil rebound
- USD/CAD rises as the US Dollar gains ground on safe-haven demand amid fading US-Iran ceasefire optimism.
- Fed March Meeting Minutes show a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging risks are becoming more balanced.
- The commodity-linked CAD may gain as oil rebounds after the tanker traffic halt in the Strait of Hormuz.
USD/CAD gains ground after three days of losses, trading around 1.3860 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire agreement between the United States (US) and Iran.
The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting, released on Wednesday, suggest the central bank remains in a wait-and-see stance, while acknowledging that risks are becoming more balanced. Policymakers broadly supported holding rates steady, with nearly all participants backing no change, and many viewing policy as already near a neutral range, implying a high bar for further tightening.
However, the upside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) may find support from a rebound in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $91.50 at the time of writing. Crude oil prices rise after Iranian media reported a halt in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Iranian officials said recent developments breach the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire, calling it “unreasonable” to continue talks for a permanent deal with the United States. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US breached three key clauses of Iran’s 10-point proposal, calling further talks “unreasonable.” Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance signaled that the strait could begin reopening as he leads a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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