GBP/USD edges up as weak US jobs data offsets risk aversion

• GBP/USD rises as weak US labor data caps the Dollar’s rebound.
• Iran threats sour sentiment, but Sterling holds gains above 1.3200.
• UK growth stays sluggish as stagflation risks cloud the outlook.

The Pound Sterling registers modest gains after Iran's IRGC threatened to attack US companies as of April 1, turning market mood sour, while the US Dollar trimmed some of its earlier losses. Nevertheless, the move was short-lived as the GBP/USD traded at 1.3190, up 0.04%.

Sterling gains as soft JOLTS counters Iran threat and Dollar

Iran's state media reported that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would target US companies within the region in retaliation for attacks on Iran. Some of the names targeted are Microsoft, Apple, Google, Intel and Boeing among the 18 companies warned by the IRGC.

In the headline, the Greenback cut some of its earlier losses as revealed by the US Dollar Index (DXY). However, the DXY, which measures the buck's performance against six currencies, edges towards 100.00, down 0.37%.

US jobs data revealed weakness in the labour market. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) revealed that vacancies fell from 7.2 million in January to 6.9 million in February. The data revealed that hiring deteriorated, falling 3.1 percentage points to 3.4% from the previous month, the US Department of Labor said.

In the UK, the economy expanded by a mediocre 0.1% in Q4 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in line with economists' estimates. Compared with a year earlier, GDP in the last quarter grew 1%, unchanged. It should be said that the OECD downward revised Britain's economy from 1.2% to 0.7% last week.

Hence, the UK economy faces a stagflationary scenario prompted by a double whammy: the Middle East conflict underpinning energy prices and the UK economy at the brisk of decelerating further. Despite this, money markets seem to be getting ahead of themselves, pricing in 59 basis points of BoE tightening. Conversely, the Fed most likely stand pat, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Given the backdrop, the GBP/USD could rise further in the near term, with the first key resistance seen at the March 30 high at 1.3282. If broken, expect a move towards 1.3300 and beyond.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3192. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds well below the clustered 50–200-day simple moving averages around 1.35, keeping the broader down phase from the 1.38 area intact. Price is pinned between an ascending support trend line from 1.3035 and a descending resistance line from 1.3869, with the latest candles pressing the lower half of this contracting structure. The Fed Sentiment Index has pushed to fresh highs above 122, underscoring a stronger dollar backdrop that reinforces downside pressure while the pair remains capped beneath the descending trend line.

Immediate resistance emerges near 1.3330, where recent highs align beneath the descending trend line and the lower band of the moving-average cluster, with a break exposing 1.3400 and then the 1.3500 region as a stronger barrier. On the downside, initial support is at 1.3180–1.3200, just above the rising trend line drawn from 1.3035, and a clear close below this area would open 1.3100, followed by the 1.3035 swing low. As long as spot trades below 1.3330 and beneath the flattening medium-term averages, rallies are likely to be sold into, keeping the bias tilted to the downside toward the lower supports.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)