USD/KRW trades near 1,510 after pulling back from 17-year highs
- USD/KRW edges lower after recording a 17-year high of 1,516.76 on Monday.
- Rising risk aversion led to foreign outflows, weighing on the South Korean Won.
- Heavy oil import reliance leaves KRW vulnerable to Middle East supply disruptions.
USD/KRW trades around 1,510.00 during the European hours after retreating from a 17-year high of 1,516.76 reached earlier on Monday. Heightened risk aversion triggered foreign outflows of 1.8 trillion Won, putting downward pressure on the South Korean Won (KRW).
The KRW faces pressure after Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, cut crude shipments to Asian buyers for a second straight month in April, as the US-Israel conflict with Iran disrupts flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Supplies are being limited to Arab Light crude shipped from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, tightening feedstock availability for Asian refiners and constraining output. South Korea’s heavy reliance on energy imports, accounting for over 90% of its oil needs, makes the domestic currency particularly vulnerable to Middle East supply disruptions.
Meanwhile, the USD/KRW pair advances as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on rising safe-haven demand amid escalating Middle East tensions. The Greenback is further supported by higher oil prices, which are fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance. Markets are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of a Fed rate hike toward year-end.
At its March meeting, the Fed voted 11–1 to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%–3.75% range, marking a second straight hold after a series of cuts in late 2025. Meanwhile, futures markets indicate an 85.5% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the April meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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