SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: Government Contracts Face Midterm Election Scrutiny Risk, Trump Says He Will Pardon Musk If Necessary

TradingKey - Amid the U.S. midterm elections, the commercial relationship between SpaceX (SPCX) and the government has once again come into focus. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on the New York Post podcast "Pod Force One" that if Democrats gain control of Congress and push for investigations into Elon Musk and associated individuals, he would consider pardons if necessary to protect these people.

Democrats have pushed back against Trump's statements. Senator Adam Schiff criticized him for attempting to provide broad protections for the individuals involved and pledged to continue pursuing alleged misconduct.

For SpaceX investors, the more direct impact lies in whether the political controversy will extend into government procurement reviews, thereby affecting new orders, project execution, and revenue realization.

Government contracts form the core backdrop of this controversy. On October 30, the Democracy Defenders Fund released a report stating that since Musk left the government, his companies have secured at least $10 billion in new federal contracts, prompting the organization to raise questions about potential conflicts of interest.

According to SpaceX's disclosed projects, its government business spans launch services and military communications. In April 2025, the company secured a national security launch services contract valued at approximately $5.9 billion involving 28 launches; in May 2026, it won another $2.29 billion order for the Space Data Network Backbone project to build a high-speed, secure data transmission network for the military.

These projects provide multi-year business opportunities for SpaceX, though contract values must be progressively recognized as revenue as missions are executed. If Congress tightens procurement oversight and slows approvals for new projects, contract adjustments, or budget allocations, the pace at which the company secures subsequent orders and plans investments could be impacted.

If the controversy remains primarily limited to hearings and disclosure requirements, the impact may be concentrated on compliance costs and valuation volatility; if it goes further to alter project budgets or procurement pacing, the effects could transmit to order growth and cash collections. For the company's stock price, what truly matters is whether political friction alters revenue and cash flow expectations for its government business.

From a technical standpoint, SpaceX reclaimed the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($140.76) today, but remains below the short-term moving average resistance at $143.74, currently undergoing a technical rebound following a breakdown below key support.

While this bounce alleviates the persistent downward slide in price, it has yet to return to the prior moving average cluster, remaining in a broader weak structure following the retreat from October highs.

SpaceX Stock Price Daily Chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at the chart, after rebounding from its August lows, the stock hit a high of $176.42 in early October before posting lower highs. Although it bounced toward $160 in late October, it failed to sustain the advance and subsequently broke down below the $145–$150 consolidation zone again. This means the immediate priority is repairing the recent platform breakdown rather than challenging previous highs; a single-day gain is not yet sufficient to reverse the pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

If the stock holds above $140.76 and finds buying support on subsequent pullbacks, the recovery could extend toward the $146.20–$149.18 range.

If it fails to hold this level again and cannot reclaim it on a bounce, the current rise would remain a brief dead-cat rebound after a breakdown, potentially sliding toward the $132.35–$135 range to seek support.