If a Stock Market Crash Is on the Way, Warren Buffett Says This Is the Best Thing Investors Can Do for Their Portfolio

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • The stock market is selling off as investors digest rising bond yields and stubborn inflation.

  • Warren Buffett warns that picking stocks based on trendy industries is risky, putting artificial intelligence (AI) in the spotlight.

  • Investing in companies with competitive advantages and diversified business models will prove resilient in the long run.

  • 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index ›

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) have recently been experiencing a bout of volatility after repeatedly notching record highs throughout 2026. With stocks coming under pressure, some investors are wondering whether a larger market correction is approaching.

Part of the concern stems from elevated bond yields and stubborn inflation. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms are among the companies supporting the broader economy as they accelerate spending on data centers.

Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »

Whether this volatility is just a temporary pullback or the beginning of something worse is impossible to know. But legendary investor Warren Buffett spent decades explaining how to navigate markets dominated by exciting new technologies, sky-high valuations, and uncertainty.

Warren Buffett speaking during an interview.

Former Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: Getty Images.

Revolutionary technology does not equal a good investment

Buffett built Berkshire Hathaway into one of history's most successful investment firms simply because he had a relentless focus on businesses he understands. He generally avoided technology stocks, instead favoring industries such as insurance, banking, consumer products, utilities, and energy. These businesses usually have relatively predictable economics, which allowed Buffett to better assess their long-term earnings potential.

Buffett understood that an industry can revolutionize society without producing attractive returns overall. Consider the automobile and aviation industries as examples. Cars and airplanes have unquestionably transformed the global economy, but countless early manufacturers and airlines have gone bankrupt as competition intensified.

The theme here is that identifying which industries are game changers is much easier than choosing the specific companies that will capture profits in the long run. This distinction matters in today's AI environment.

While AI is shaping up to be one of the most transformative technologies in history, that doesn't mean every semiconductor company, software developer, or infrastructure provider is going to generate market-beating returns.

Is the AI revolution destined to end up like the dot-com bubble?

During the late 1990s, investors were pouring money into virtually anything that resembled the internet. Speculative technology stocks became multibaggers, even when the underlying companies had little revenue, no profits, or incomplete business models.

Reality inevitably caught up with expectations. After peaking in March 2000, the Nasdaq plummeted by 78% by October 2002. Suddenly, once-promising internet businesses left investors holding the bag.

Today, some investors are worried the AI boom could become a modern retelling of the dot-com bubble. Sure, AI leaders like Nvidia and the cloud hyperscalers already generate substantial profits and cash flow. The reason why is that their AI infrastructure is supported by numerous established businesses rather than simply promises around future growth. Still, the industry faces uncertainty because not every model developer is going to succeed in the long run.

This brings us to Buffett's most important investing principle. The single best thing an investor can do for their portfolio right now is load up on companies with durable competitive advantages rather than chasing the stocks attracting the most attention. Buffett describes these advantages as economic moats that come in the form of powerful brands, high switching costs, network effects, and economies of scale.

What is the best investment if the market crashes?

There's a more subtle lesson investors can learn from the dot-com crash: Time in the market is more valuable than trying to time the market. Suppose you invested in the S&P 500 near its peak during the dot-com era. If you managed to stay invested, you would have witnessed the index appreciate roughly 450%.

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

A hypothetical $10,000 investment would have grown to nearly $55,000, even though it was made right before a major market collapse. What's even more inspiring is that over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 has endured three recessions -- pictured above as the grey-shaded columns -- and managed to come out higher after each one. This underscores the resiliency of the S&P 500 as one of the greatest wealth-creation vehicles.

This performance is why Buffett's emphasis on diversification is both valuable and relevant in today's market. Rather than panic-selling whenever stocks become volatile or valuation is frothy, investors should rebalance their portfolios if their positions expose them to unnecessary risk.

Ultimately, no one knows whether the recent sell-off will permeate into a full-blown crash. But Buffett's philosophy offers a practical response: The best opportunity is to own quality businesses, avoid paying unreasonable prices, and remain patient enough to let compounding do the heavy lifting.

Should you buy stock in S&P 500 Index right now?

Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $350,756!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,363,905!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 922% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 213% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of October 23, 2026.

Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Dollar presses 102 as the 10-year yield sits at 5.14% — and October hike odds are only 17%The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 20, Tue
The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
placeholder
Meta's AI bill just hit $145 billion — and it issued a new share class to pay for itMeta reported record third-quarter revenue of $64.60 billion, up 26% from a year earlier, and raised full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $135-145 billion from $130-145 billion. To fund that build-out without touching Mark Zuckerberg's voting control, the company announced a 2-for-1 stock split that hands every Class A holder a new non-voting Class C share. Here are the four lines that matter, the peer group that is being re-rated alongside it, and the bull and bear cases.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 22, Thu
Meta reported record third-quarter revenue of $64.60 billion, up 26% from a year earlier, and raised full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $135-145 billion from $130-145 billion. To fund that build-out without touching Mark Zuckerberg's voting control, the company announced a 2-for-1 stock split that hands every Class A holder a new non-voting Class C share. Here are the four lines that matter, the peer group that is being re-rated alongside it, and the bull and bear cases.
placeholder
The Fed will sit still on October 28 — but 100 of 100 economists now expect a December hikeA Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 22, Thu
A Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 23, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 23, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
Yesterday 02: 56
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 23, 2026. Read on for the details.
placeholder
Nasdaq closes at 26,008.86 — 8.9 points above 26,000, and the credit market never blinkedThe Nasdaq Composite fell 2.60% to 26,008.86 on October 22, its worst session since June, as Meta sank 6.98% on 2026 capex guidance of $135–145 billion. But the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.73%, high-yield credit was flat and 10-year yields fell 20 basis points. This was an AI de-rating, not a risk-off event — here is the transmission chain, the 29,000 / 28,200 levels and what would prove it wrong.
Author  Irene Q.
20 hours ago
The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.60% to 26,008.86 on October 22, its worst session since June, as Meta sank 6.98% on 2026 capex guidance of $135–145 billion. But the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.73%, high-yield credit was flat and 10-year yields fell 20 basis points. This was an AI de-rating, not a risk-off event — here is the transmission chain, the 29,000 / 28,200 levels and what would prove it wrong.
goTop
quote