A year ago, MP Materials was at the mercy of China.
Today, it's backed by cash -- and price guarantees -- from the U.S. government.
As recently as a year ago, rare-earth metals miner MP Materials (NYSE: MP) was looking kind of hopeless.
On the one hand, MP Materials was practically the only company in the U.S. trying to do something about America's absolute dependence on China for rare-earth magnets (and rare-earth oxide mining and refining), which are essential to building all sorts of high-tech gizmos, from wind turbines and electric cars to guided missiles and F-35 fighter jets.
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On the other hand, though, China was well aware of this fact. It had the power to underprice MP's products any time it wanted to -- or even to shut down MP's sales of mined rare-earths entirely, by levying high tariffs on imported rare-earth metals as part of its on-again, off-again trade war with the U.S. This left MP in a precarious position. Indeed, it turned MP Materials stock unprofitable last year, and those losses have only increased in 2025.
And yet, despite all this bad news, MP Materials stock is up dramatically in 2025. If you'd invested $100 in MP Materials stock one year ago, today you'd have $306.70 in the bank -- a clean triple in just one year.
So what changed? U.S. industrial policy changed, that's what.
In an effort to shore up America's supply chain for essential rare earth metals, in July 2025, the Trump administration agreed to make a $400 million investment in MP preferred convertible stock. The administration also guaranteed MP that, for the next 10 years, the U.S. Department of Defense will buy all the rare-earth magnets MP can produce, and at guaranteed prices. Today, MP is on track to build a second rare-earth magnet factory with 10,000 tons annual capacity, enough to replace about 73.5% of all rare-earth magnets currently imported per year.
It's quite a turnaround for the stock, and the No. 1 reason why MP Materials stock is a three-bagger today.
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.