Europe: Rearmament reshapes growth outlook – Nordea

Nordea's Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen argues that rapidly rising defense spending in Europe represents a historic fiscal expansion that can support GDP in the short term but raises medium‑term risks. He highlights IMF research on multipliers, debt and inflation, and notes that targeted, high‑tech defense investment could enhance productivity and competitiveness over time.

Rearmament as fiscal stimulus and risk

"After decades of declining defense budgets, the world has now entered a new era of rearmament. The war in Ukraine, growing great power rivalry, and uncertainty about US security guarantees have sent defense spending markedly higher in Europe."

"Historically, rising defense spending has functioned as classic fiscal stimulus. When the state hires more soldiers, buys weapons, builds barracks, or invests in cyber defense, it creates activity in industry and the labor market."

"This is precisely why the IMF warns about the medium-term consequences. When defense spending rises rapidly, it typically happens through larger budget deficits."

"At the same time, there is a latent risk that rearmament leads to both higher inflation and higher interest rates. The IMF thus emphasizes that defense buildup typically pushes prices up temporarily, especially in economies with already high capacity utilization."

"Nevertheless, Europe's rearmament can also become a catalyst for a new industrial policy and future growth. Many governments now want to strengthen European production of ammunition, AI, satellites, cyber defense, and advanced technologies."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)