US Dollar: Swaplines and energy statecraft reshape usage – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Michael Every and Joe DeLaura see US Dollar policy increasingly tied to energy and geopolitics. They note new US Treasury swaplines to Argentina and the UAE, argue these are tools of economic statecraft to reinforce Dollar usage, and suggest a future US-led energy ‘stack’ could combine security guarantees, USD pricing and swaplines for producers.

Swaplines, pricing power and Dollar blocs

"In October 2025, the Treasury issued a $20bn swapline for Argentina, seen as economic statecraft to help a geopolitical ally (and repaid in January): the $20bn Treasury swapline with the UAE, whose currency is pegged to the USD, is also not just liquidity but geopolitical support."

"Treasury Secretary Bessent stated swaplines with Gulf and Asian allies “can benefit our nation by reinforcing dollar usage and liquidity internationally,” and that, “Dollar dominance and reserve currency status are strengthened by constant long-term initiatives, including countering the growth of problematic, alternative payment systems.” He further described the UAE facility as “a major first step in creating new US dollar funding centres in the Gulf and Asia.” It seems more will follow - and shift from financial liquidity for old allies to resource-based economic statecraft for new ones."

"That ‘stack’ could lead to divergent --lower-- prices for those inside it vs. those outside. For example, the US could ask bloc energy producers to offer discounts as quid pro quo for security, or to produce more and ensure these flows stay in bloc, requiring energy buyers to end transshipment outside it."

"Specifically, if: (i) Europe abandons plans for energy decoupling from the US and buys more LNG instead; and (ii) China imports more energy from the US and allies the Pentagon has supply-chain control over, (primarily NAPHTHA – SAPHTHA, but including the Middle East if the US wins the Iran War), it would cap any alternative energy ‘stacks’ from emerging."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)